TNAG-2193-FCO40-3130-Hong-Kong-nationality-package-1990 — Page 95

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their estimate of how the flow will vary over the eight quarters;

for present purposes we have assumed a broadly even flow.

17. The UK team will therefore be required to process 43,000 recommendations in the two year period 1991/2 to 1992/3. Spouses

and minor children will also be eligible and we assume that the

great majority will apply at the same time at their head of

household (although the Bill will not require them to do so).

The Hong Kong Government have advised us, on the basis of census

data, that their best estimate of average family size, weighted

to take account of the occupational groups most likely to be

selected under the scheme, is 2.3. This brings the total number of recommendations to be processed up to just under 100,000 over the two year period.

18. The 2.3 multiplier is much lower than the multiplier of 4.5

implied in the Foreign Secretary's statement on 20 December,

which suggested that the ceiling of 50,000 families represented

a total commitment of up to 225,000 grants of citizenship. The discrepancy between 2.3 and 4.5 is partly explained by the fact

that the latter includes children born after the registration of

the principal beneficiary; they will be British citizens

automatically under the 1981 Act but are not relevant when

calculating the number of persons who will be recommended for

registration under the Bill which is what will determine the

workload of the UK team.

19.

However, it does now appear that the 4.5 multiplier may have

been too high. Ministers will doubtless be pressed on this. The

line to be taken is likely to be that the Foreign Secretary

wanted to quote a figure which he could be confident would not be exceeded but that from more detailed analysis by the Hong Kong

Government it now appears likely that the total commitment will be lower (a figure is being prepared).

20. We have attempted to make an estimate of productivity, with

advice from the Nationality Division based on the current state

of development of the proposed scheme. The analysis set out at

Annex A concludes that, on average, each case will take about 68

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