would be willing to go as far as reaching an agreement with us on the issue.
5.
You ask about the "international safety net" idea. In the aftermath of Tiananmen, we took the line in public and in private contacts with other Governments, that in the event of serious crisis of confidence in Hong Kong, we would look to the international community to help if the numbers leaving Hong Kong were more than we could cope with alone. We secured no specific commitments from anyone, although some Governments (including the Australians) responded to the effect that their record on refugees, speaks for itself. In recent months, as memories of Tiananmen have become less vivid, we have ceased talking about this kind of worst case scenario, which is bad for confidence, both internationally and in Hong Kong. We think it unlikely that we would want to recommend that the Home Secretary should raise it.
6. To sum up,
our view is that the chances of our reaching an agreement with the Australians about emigration from Hong Kong are not good. We may secure some helpful gesture from Canberra and there would be no harm (and quite possibly some value) in the Home Secretary raising the general issue with the Australians in September. We would be able to give more detailed advice nearer the time.
Yours Sincerel Alan Parl
A R Paul
CONFIDENTIAL
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