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MDHIAN 585
(A) THE SOUTH AFRICANS ALREADY ARE ATTEMPTING TO ATTRACT HONG KONG PROFESSIONAL AND INVESTORS. THIS POLICY COULD INDEED CAUSE SOME POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES WITH THE RIGHT WING BUT THE GOVERNMENT ATTACHES GREATER IMPORTANCE TO ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND IS LIKELY TO DISREGARD THEM. THE BLACK LEADERSHIP, HOWEVER, WILL OBJECT STRONGLY
TO THESE PLANS.
(B) THE SOUTH AFRICAN INITIATIVE HAS, TO SOME EXTENT, PRE-EMPTED OUR OWN PROPOSAL. THE SOUTH AFRICANS WANT IMMIGRATION TO HELP INCREASE THEIR ECONOMIC POTENTIAL BUT WE WOULD BE ASKING FOR A SPECIFIC COMMITMENT FROM A GOVERNMENT WHICH IS ON RECORD AS SAYING THAT IT IS TRYING TO NEGOTIATE MAJOR CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES AND DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ANOTHER GENERAL ELECTION EXCLUDING THE BLACK MAJORITY. IN SEVEN YEARS TIME THE POSITION HERE MAY LOOK VERY DIFFERENT AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY MIGHT NOT FEEL INCLINED TO HONOUR THE EARLIER COMMITMENT.
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5. WHILE THE PROSPECT OF INTERNATIONAL CO-OPERATION IN THIS SCHEME MIGHT BE ATTRACTIVE TO THE SOUTH AFRICANS THEY ARE LIKELY TO BELIEVE THEY HAVE ALREADY SECURED CONSIDERABLE DIPLOMATIC ADVANCES RECENTLY PARTICULARLY THROUGH PRESIDENT DE KLERK'S CONTACTS AT NAMIBIA'S INDEPENDENCE- AND THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO WANT TO HOLD BACK FROM TRYING TO ATTRACT HONG KONG IMMIGRATION IMMEDIATELY (PARA 1 OF TUR).
CONCLUSION
6. THERE ARE DEFINITE POLITICAL RISKS IN MAKING AN APPROACH OF THE KIND ENVISAGED AND WE WOULD BE LOOKING FOR A COMMITMENT WHICH WOULD HAVE TO BE HONOURED WHEN CIRCUMSTANCES HERE WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT. I DO NOT, THEREFORE, RECOMMEND THAT WE SHOULD MAKE AN APPROACH OF THE KIND ENVISAGED.
RENWICK
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ΜΑΙΝ
22
LIMITED
HKD
SAFD
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DISTRIBUTION
22
PS/MR MAUDE
MR MCLAREN
2
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