TNAG-2160-FCO40-3080-Hong-Kong-nationality-package-Chinese-views-1990 — Page 70

CONFIDENTIAL

Effects And Effectiveness of Possible Chinese Measures

9. The main effect of continued Chinese opposition to the

nationality package and public statements about threatened specific measures will be to cause further damage to

confidence: such a Chinese attitude is likely to increase the

doubts of potential beneficiaries of the package about their

future after 1997. Beneficiaries are more likely to make plans

to leave Hong Kong before the hand-over, which they are

unlikely to reverse unless there is a clear change in China's

attitude so as to foster greater confidence in the territory's

future. The numbers influenced in this way are likely to be

much larger than those cowed into bending to Chinese pressure.

Paradoxically, unless there is a clear improvement in the Chinese attitude, there seems little prospect of attracting to Hong Kong significant numbers of Chinese students and others

who are now resident in Western countries, as the Chinese have suggested. Chinese opposition may also influence the attitude of some governments which we have urged to introduce similar

measures but have not yet done so.

10. The Chinese will face the practical problem of identifying beneficiaries of the nationality package (and similar arrangements offered by other governments) in implementing their arrangements excluding such people from certain positions. They will need in due course to announce procedures for this purpose. These could, for example, involve obliging candidates for the positions concerned to sign a declaration

that they do not possess right of abode in a foreign country; perhaps also asking holders of British and foreign citizenship to declare when and under what circumstances they obtained

their citizenship. They would also need to clarify criteria and procedures for the renunciation of Chinese nationality in accordance with the CNL. This specifies inter alia that applications must be made to local public security bureaux or Chinese diplomatic missions abroad and are subject to approval by the Ministry of Public Security. On a strict interpretation of the criteria stated in the CNL few Hong Kong residents are likely to be qualified to apply for renunciation. (The

CONFIDENTIAL