CONFIDENTIAL
.the confidence to stay in Hong Kong beyond 1997 show a
disturbing confrontational tendency by the Chinese.
On a pessimistic interpretation, one of their purposes in accusing the British side of violating a commitment could be to make it easier to defend any steps which they may intend to take (for example in the Basic Law) which might be inconsistent with the Joint Declaration or other commitments given by them.
4.
If this analysis is correct, it would fit in with other signs that the hard-line leaders now in charge in Peking have decided to take up uncompromising positions on a range of Hong Kong issues (eg direct elections, other points in the Basic Law, the Bill of Rights and the Port and Airport Development Scheme). It is conceivable that the Chinese could be considering adopting the tactic of displaying intransigence with the aim of demonstrating the limited ability of the British Government to defend Hong Kong's interests and of cowing the majority of Hong Kong opinion into a more submissive attitude. The Governor's visit to Peking this week will, of course, provide a clearer indication of the extent to which the Chinese have hardened their position on key issues.
5. While I would not rush to the conclusion that the Chinese have definitely decided on the course described above and even if they have, I would not rule out that more liberal-minded leaders might replace the present ones before 1997 - I suggest that our policy needs at least to take account of the possibility of deliberate intransigence by the Chinese, with no certainty of improvement before 1997.
Kafolken
KC Walker
Asian Region
Research Department OAB 2/125
210-6220
RB1AAJ
CONFIDENTIAL
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