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Region which will come into being în 1997. The Joint Declaration and the Basic Law require us to "take measures for the maintenance of the status of Hong Kong as a centre of international and regional avia- tion". We shall have our own Air Service Agreements and be able to negotiate our own air traffic rights with third countries within the lim- its laid down in the Joint Declara- tion. If we fail to have an interna- tional airport within the geographi- cal limits of Hong Kong which is capable of meeting demand, we would in effect be giving up this autonomy in civil aviation which has been guaranteed for us in this way. Kai Tak is already the sixth busiest airport in the world in terms of international passengers and the fourth busiest in terms of interna- tional freight. It is significantly busier than any airport anywhere in China. Any suggestion that a replacement airport of such world and regional importance would be better sited over the border in Sothern China or that we should rely on Shenzhen airport to absorb Hong Kong's fore- cast air traffic growth ignore all of these important considerations.
6. And why is it that we cannot simply struggle on using Kai Tak? Indeed, we are already doing every- thing we can to expand the capacity of Kai Tak, but that capacity is ulti- mately constrained by the fact that there is only one runway, which, because of its location, cannot even be used 24 hours a day. Although Kai Tak has served us well these past decades, its location is becom- ing increasingly difficult. Some 350,000 people live under the flight path and the noise impact of air- craft exceeds internationally accepted standards. Safety standards imposed by the physical constraints of the site are also less than ideal. Over the years, we have implemented a number of improvements to extend the life of Kai Tak. These works continue and will provide more parking bays for aircraft, improved air traffic control and improved road access to Kai Tak. Even once all this has been done, Kai Tak will be operating at capacity well before
the new airport can open. In the twelve months ending September, both passenger and aircraft move- ments had grown by 12%. If double- digit growth continues, capacity at Kai Tak will be reached as early as 1993.
7.
There has been some misun- derstanding as to what that will mean, It will not mean that af aircraft will be landing and taking off every minute of all the hours of operation of the airport. It means that the time-slots remaining for scheduling aircraft will be so unattractive to commercial airlines that they will be either unable or unwilling to expand their serv- ices to meet demand. They will then turn to other airports which can offer more attractive time slots that would enable them to make opti- mum use of their aircraft and pro- vide a better interface with their route network. Thus when Kai Tak reaches capacity we would lose potentially new passenger traffic and experience growth only in charter flights and cargo operators willing to use non social time slots. The impact on our economy would be considerable.
8.
Most experts agree that the Asia Pacific Region will experience higher levels of growth in air traffic than anywhere else in the world in the coming decade. Our neighbours and competitors are well aware of this: the second terminal at Changi airport in Singapore is about to open next month and the authorities are already planning for a third runway, a new airport is under construction at Osaka; a massive new interna- tional airport on an even larger scale than Chek Lap Kok is being planned to serve Seoul; extensive expansion of Bangkok airport is being planned; and a second passenger terminal is to be completed in Jakarta by 1991.
We cannot afford to leave Kai Tak congested and operating at its ultimate capacity, because of the importance of an efficient airport to our economy. In 1989, 730,000 tonnes of air cargo passed through Kai Tak; that made up just under 30% of our domestic exports, 20%
of our imports and over 16% of our re-exports by value. About 85% of our tourists arrive by air. In 1989, receipts from tourism amounted to nearly $37 billion, an increase of 11% over 1988. We are the most popular tourist destination in Asia. The investment made by the hotel sector alone in this field is huge, with an additional 3000 hotel rooms provided in 1989, and a further 6500 rooms expected by the end of 1992. More difficult to quantify are the benefits derived from the ease with which businessmen can come and go. There is no doubt however that a constrained airport would severely limit our economic growth and make Hong Kong increasingly less attrac- tive as a major centre for trade, finance and commence.
10.
I should now like to refer to suggestions that new airports in Macau and Shenzhen will somehow mean that we will not need Chek Lap Kok as urgently as we clairn. Dealing first with Macau, we do not see how Macau will, in the long term, draw away any significant traf. fic from Hong Kong. It will have a separate complementary role in the region of serving Macau and its adjacent Pear River Delta hinter- land. It cannot possibly be expected to attract traffic in any significant volume from an aviation hub the size of Hong Kong, with the con- venience it offers in providing con- nections to a vast network of re- gional and international routes. The resistance to routing passengers to Hong Kong through Macau would be every high.
11.
On the other hand, Huang- tian airport in Shenzhen will un- doubtedly have some effect on Hong Kong. It will potentially fulfil a helpful role in relieving pressure on Kai Tak when capacity has been reached there and until Chek Lap Kok opens. Once Kai Tak becomes severely congested, it is quite pos- sible that mainland traffic coming to Hong Kong may find it more convenient to fly to Shenzhen in the first instance and to travel on into Hong Kong by road. This is, of course, assuming that an efficient
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