TNAG-2143-FCO40-3062-Hong-Kong-Port-and-Airport-Development-Strategy-(PADS)-1990 — Page 93

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economic

disbenefits

2

would

range widely,

from.

HK$11 billion to HK$185 billion(2), depending on the

different assumptions used.

(a) Based on the same assumptions as adopted in the

Kai Tak

straight

Consultancy, the PADS Consultants made o

extrapolation of the Kai Tak Consultancy

figures and this gave an estimate of economic

(The Ligure

disbenefits

of

HKS 185 billion.

for the estimation is

could be even larger if the time horizon adopted

by the PADS Consultants

extended beyond 2026. We nevertheless prefer a

less remote cut-off at year 2010 adopted by the

Kai Tak Consultants.)

(b) The PADS Consultants

then adopted a new

assumption with regard to the airport-associated

employees which could be released because of the

inability of the airport-related services 10

expand further once the Kai Tak airport reached

Whereas the Kai Tak Consultants

assumed that these lost employment opportunities

would result in a complete disbenefit, the PADS

Consultants Jassumed that 95% of these resources

saturation.

(2) At 1988 prices, for the period from 1997 to 2026.