TNAG-2143-FCO40-3062-Hong-Kong-Port-and-Airport-Development-Strategy-(PADS)-1990 — Page 87

JOTULIT1300

DERVILLE

1990-19-23 12:19

ESB GS

economic

digbenefits

would

852 868 45/9 H.03

range widely,

from

HK$11 billion to HK$185 billion(2), depending on the

different assumptions used.

(a) Based

Kai Tak

straight

the some assumptions ag adopted in the

Consultancy, the PADS Consultants made a

extrapolation of the Kai Tak Consultancy

billion.

for the estimation is

figures and this gave an estimate of economic

disbenefits of HKS 185

(The figure

could bo even larger if the time horizon adopted

by the PADS Consultants

extended beyond 2026. We nevertheless prefer a

less remote cut-off at year 2010 adopted by the

Kai Tak Consultants.i

(b)

The PADS Consultants then adopted a new

assumption with regard to the airport-associated

employees which could be released because of the

inability ΟΙ the airport-related services to

expand further once the Kai Tak airport reached

Whereas the Kai Tak Consultants

assumed that these lost employment opportunities

would result in a complete disbenefit, the PADS

Consultants assumed that 95% of these resources

saturation.

(2)

At 1988 prices, for the period from 1997 to 2026.