TNAG-2143-FCO40-3062-Hong-Kong-Port-and-Airport-Development-Strategy-(PADS)-1990 — Page 104

2

economic

disbenefits

HK$11 billion

to

would

range widely,

from

HK$185 billion(2), depending on the

different assumptions used.

(a) Based on the same assumptions as adopted in the

Kai Tak

straight

Consultancy, the PADS Consultants made a

extrapolation of the Kai Tak Consultancy

billion.

figures and this gave an estimate of economic

disbenefits of HK$ 185

(The figure

could be even larger if the time horizon adopted

by the PADS Consultants for the estimation is

extended beyond 2026. We nevertheless prefer a

less remote cut-off at year 2010 adopted by the

Kai Tak Consultants.)

(b) The

PADS Consultants then adopted a new

regard to the airport-associated

could be released because of the

assumption with

employees which

saturation.

inability of the airport-related services to

expand further once the Kai Tak airport reached

Whereas the Kai Tak Consultants

assumed that these lost employment opportunities

would result in a complete disbenefit, the PADS

Consultants assumed that 95% of these resources

(2)

At 1988 prices, for the period from 1997 to 2026.