TNAG-2129-FCO40-3044-Hong-Kong-and-the-ivory-trade-1990 — Page 39

CONFIDENTIAL

046554

MDHIAN 3692

6. GIVEN THAT THE REGISTRATION AND MONITORING OF IVORY STOCKS IN HONG KONG HAS ONLY RECENTLY BEEN EMBARKED UPON, AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT BOTH THE SIZE OF THE TRADE HERE AND THE LARGE NUMBER OF TRADERS FROM WHOM BOTH THE VOLUNTARY DECLARATIONS AND THE MANDATORY RETURNS HAVE HAD TO BE OBTAINED, THE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE ORIGINAL ESTIMATES AND THE FINAL RETURNS IS ANNOYING BUT NOT/NOT TOO SURPRISING. IT IS WORTH BEARING IN MIND THAT THIS COMPLEX TASK HAS NOT BEEN TACKLED BY ANY OTHER CITES PARTY: WE ARE BREAKING NEW GROUND.

7. I AM ASSURED THAT OUR REGISTRATION AND MONITORING SYSTEMS ARE

SOUND AND THAT OUR ANTI-SMUGGLING ENFORCEMENT IS EFFECTIVE.

8. IT IS DIFFICULT TO BE PRECISE ABOUT THE REASONS FOR THE DISCREPÈNCIES BETWEEN EARLIER ESTIMATES AND LATER MORE DETAILED RETURNS. WE SUSPECT THAT THERE WAS A MIXTURE OF ROUGH ESTIMATING: OVERESTIMATING TO ALLOW FUTURE LEEWAY: AND OVERESTIMATING IN

ANTICIPATION OF POSSIBLE COMPENSATION. WHERE THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ESTIMATE AND EVENTUAL RETURN WE ARE CHECKING TO

SEE IF WE CAN ESTABLISH THE REASONS.

WILSON

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ΜΑΙΝ

LIMITED

HKD

MAED

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DISTRIBUTION

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MR MCLAREN

MR GILLMORE

MR BAYNE

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