SECRET
4. The third stage was consideration by OD of these proposals; the decisions that needed to be taken and when; and what the form and timing of any public announcement should be. This process took place in May 1989 and the conclusions reached were:
the MOD's proposals for the future were broadly acceptable.
a.
b. it was not however necessary then to make final decisions on roles or deployments, nor was it necessary to decide whether or not the battalion due to be withdrawn from Hong Kong in 1992 should be disbanded or retained.
C.
any announcement should be in reasonably general terms and should stress that plans for after 1992 were based on current assumptions and could be adjusted to take account. of changed circumstances - eg any manpower shortages arising from demography.
d. action would need to be taken to restrict the eligibility of Gurkhas and their dependants for settlement in the UK and citizenship in order to preserve the current position whereby Gurkhas are recruited and discharged in Nepal and remain Nepalese citizens at all times. This would require legislation which could form part of the Armed Forces Bill 1991.
5. The actual announcement was made on 22 May simultaneously in the Commons and the Lords and I attach a copy of the (House of Commons) Hansard extract. The next major decision point will be about the end of 1990 when a decision will have to be made about the future of the battalion due to be withdrawn from Hong Kong in 1992.
6.
The overall security situation in Europe has changed substantially since last year's announcement.
There is growing speculation about whether, in the circumstances, the government's commitment to the Gurkhas will remain intact. Although a major reversal of the policy cannot be ruled out, (and indeed is allowed for in the announcement which refers to "current circumstances" and says that it is "not possible to be definitive") the extant HMG position is that there will be a viable future for the Brigade and there is a statement to that effect in SDE 90 (copy attached). Currently work within MOD on options for change is concentrating on strategic issues with, as yet, no consideration being given to the impact on individual units. It is therefore not possible to go beyond re-stating the current position. This is reflected in the lines to take.
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