TNAG-2120-FCO40-3026-Hong-Kong-Garrison-future-of-the-Royal-Navy-presence-1990 — Page 160

SECRET UK EYES A

LOCSEN

presence. But, whatever the naval force proposed by the study, it should be noted that unless other sources of funding are made available, financial provision could only | be made at the expense of other items currently funded in the Defence programme.

36.

Inputs and Timescales. In recognition of the possibility of a political commitment to provide some form

of RN presence afloat in Hong Kong waters until

30 June 1997, an MOD Navy study of the future RN presence has been commissioned by MOD Central Staffs, with

recommendations for the provision of a credible military

force to be presented by mid-1989. Inputs will be required

from HMG, HKG, MODUK, HQBFHK as well as other agencies. (HQBFHK have undertaken to draft, in conjunction with CAPIC,

a role and an outline of the requirement for the future RN presence; this will be forwarded following endorsement by the HKG Security Branch.) The abbreviated timescale has been

imposed so that findings are available at least 18 months

ahead of the earliest notional withdrawal of the third PC;

this should permit notification of any pertinent decisions to the PRCG early enough to preclude Chinese procrastination

delaying PC withdrawals during or after 1991 assuming

these continue to be recommended.

37. Factors, It will be necessary to ascertain via

analysis of a range of options, an appropriate and credible level of operational capability in order to provide the basis for proper deliberation and the subsequent development

of the maritime requirement. Factors to be taken into

account are: the threat (which is assessed not to have

changed); the requirement; the capability and likely effectiveness of MARPOL; funding arrangements involving HKG; the naval support facilities expected to be available; and the capacity of the preferred solution to withstand Chinese

scrutiny.

COS53.4-15

24 LOCSEN

UK EYES A

SECRET