TNAG-2119-FCO40-3025-Future-of-Hong-Kong-general-1990 — Page 28

2

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Hong Kong's judicial

system is vulnerable

Both sides are in a state of flux and confusion on this issue. They need an explicit understanding. Currently, the Hong Kong government is enforcing an anti-subversion rule, but not making it public and explicit; this confuses the public. Partly because the issue has not been squarely and publicly faced, the liberal press reports controversial issues without addressing the central concern and exacerbates public anxiety. On its side, the Chinese government has moved so far toward a hard line that it is raising legitimate doubts about whether freedom of press and opinion after 1997 will be adequate to sustain information-intensive businesses such as regional banking, stockbroking, and publishing, and also to sustain a large population of the kinds of sensitive, opinionated, highly educated individuals who are the principal resource of such businesses.

The Hong Kong government can afford to surface this issue and discuss it. The Chinese government can afford to take a magnanimous view, as on occasion it does, in the interest of sustaining confidence and the service industries of Hong Kong. An understanding in principle between them should not be impossible, although there will always be difficult borderline

cases.

Whether this is accomplished is the single most important issue for Hong Kong's future. Those concerned about Hong Kong's future should monitor this issue more closely than any other.

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While Beijing has honored its commitment not to subvert Hong Kong better than Hong Kong has honored its obligation not to subvert Beijing, there remain areas of profound concern for the future, most notably the integrity of Hong Kong's judicial system. In the PRC system, the state controls the courts and expects to be able to get the results it wants. In the Western/Hong Kong system, the state writes the laws, but independent courts administer he them and interpret them. Lawyers are accredited by the court, not the state. Secre Hong Kong's economy could not survive a major compromise with the PRC system, because international firms expect to be able to sue the state, to sue firms belonging to the state without prejudice, and to have complex disputes adjudicated under the final authority of an independent court system. The further Beijing goes toward assuring the detailed continuation of such a system, excepting national security and foreign policy issues, the more prosperous Hong Kong will be.

More broadly. Beijing will have powerful agents of various kinds in Hong Kong: bankers, security officials, political figures, and a wide variety of others. Many of these people are likely to believe that they can improve on the way things are done in Hong Kong. Many will perceive ways in which they think they can further the interests of Beijing or of powerful groups in China by making minor alterations in the way things are done in Hong