entrepot and tourist
center...
...are not at risk.
Shanghai wants to
emulate Hong Kong...
...not suppress it.
printing capabilities are superior, but Singapore severely restricts press freedom. In the next few years, there will be no serious competitors for Hong Kong's role. However, depending on the attitude of Beijing, Hong Kong's long-term attractiveness in this area could weaken substantially at a time when one can imagine possible improvements in Singapore or Bangkok. This is a role Hong Kong can lose. China will certainly be tempted to curb “slander” and “rumors” about China, as Lee Kwan Yew currently does in Singapore.
The roles as an airlock for southern China and as a manager of huge manufacturing industries, together with its superb harbor and world-class communication and transport facilities, ensure continuation of Hong Kong's other roles as a major tourism center and entrepot. For two of the past three years, Hong Kong has had the world's most active container port (Singapore was second, Rotterdam third, New York seventh in 1988). Tourism was hurt by Tiananmen Square but has already rebounded enormously.
In short, most of Hong Kong's major roles are secure-despite the brain drain—unless there is deterioration far beyond what seems likely. There is considerable margin for error without losing these roles. China may limit press criticism of itself, Hong Kong may become more bureaucratized, the brain drain may increase, and China may undergo very severe political strife in the succession to Deng Xiaoping-and still the historical record shows that Hong Kong could prosper.
HONG KONG SHANGHAIED?
A mainland version of the competition thesis holds that Shanghai is envious of Hong Kong's success and will seek to raise itself by suppressing Hong Kong. As evidence of the seriousness of this risk, some argue that China's bureau dealing with Hong Kong and Macau affairs is dominated by Shanghainese.
This writer has sought to substantiate this thesis of Shanghai red-eye disease through interviews in Guangzhou and Beijing and discussions with figures from Shanghai. The evidence goes the other way. Shanghai perceives its problems as caused by Beijing's excessive taxation, not by competition from Hong Kong. It seems more desirous of emulating Hong Kong than suppressing it. Guangdong officials and scholars express no concern about being suppressed by nasty Shanghainese; they believe the Pudong economic zone outside Shanghai will follow a quite different model than their own, and they believe their proximity to Hong Kong and their superior ties to the overseas community assure their continued
success.
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