CONFIDENTIAL
HKB 431
16
82
030666 MDHOAN 0701
CONFIDENTIAL
FM FCO
TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG
TELNO 2056
OF 021615Z NOVEMBER 90
INFO PRIORITY PEKING, UKREP JLG HONG KONG
15.
TOP COPY Q DIST?
OUR TELNO 1993: CIVIL SERVICE PENSIONS: NOTE FOR THE CHINESE
1 m
WE HAVE NOW RECEIVED COPIES OF THE THREE ANNEXES TO BE
ATTACHED TO THE NOTE FOR THE CHINESE. THE ANNEX DEALING WITH THE FORECAST OF PENSION EXPENDITURE FOR THE YEARS 1990/91 TO 2006/7 COULD PROVE SENSITIVE WITH THE CHINESE. IT SHOWS THAT EXPENDITURE ON PENSIONS AS A PERCENTAGE OF PERSONNEL EMOLUMENTS (PE) WILL ALMOST TREBLE BETWEEN NOW AND 2006/7. NO EXPLANATION
FOR THIS IS GIVEN IN THE TEXT AND THERE IS NO INDICATION AS TO WHETHER THE PERCENTAGE IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OR DECREASE AFTER 2006/7.
2. WE WONDER WHETHER IT MIGHT BE WORTHWHILE LOOKING AGAIN AT BOTH THE ANNEX AND THE TEXT. WOULD NOT, FOR EXAMPLE, THE PERCENTAGE INCREASES IN PENSION EXPENDITURE BE LESS IF THE COMPARISONS WERE MADE WITH TOTAL RECURRENT EXPENDITURE, RATHER THAN SOLELY PE? IT MIGHT ALSO BE WORTH SETTING OUT IN THE TEXT THAT THESE FIGURES ARE MANAGEABLE, PERHAPS STARTING FROM A LOW BASE, AND NOT AT ALL OUT OF LINE PROPORTIONALLY WITH THE PENSION BILLS OF OTHER GOVERNMENTS IF THESE POINTS ARE FACTUALLY ACCURATE.
HURD
-
YYYY
ΜΑΙΝ
17
LIMITED
HKD
NNNN
DISTRIBUTION
17
MR MCLAREN MR BURNS
PAGE
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CONFIDENTIAL
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