all eligible HMOCS officers remain until normal retirement
The "worst case" assumes that a high proportion leave
age.
in 1997 or shortly thereafter.
The range of costs is as
follows:
Worst Case Probable
Best Case
£m
Option a
163
131
57
Option b
45
17
3
Option c
72
34
7
How to limit HMG's financial commitment
3.
Whatever option we decide to adopt, there is a risk of further large increases in Hong Kong civil service salaries between now and 1997, which could add significantly to the
cost of the scheme. We cannot rule out the possibility that the Hong Kong Government will continue to increase salaries
for civil servants above the level of inflation in order to
keep them in place. Treasury officials have suggested that one way of avoiding an open ended commitment might be to build in a provision for HMG to review the benefits available under the scheme in the light of prevailing salary
levels in 1997 and thereafter. But any such provision would creat so much uncertainty as to make the scheme almost worthless in the eyes of HMOCS officers.
4.
Another possibility which we have considered would be to denominate the scheme in sterling. This would entail calculating the salaries of individual HMOCS officers at the current exchange rate when the scheme came into effect and stipulating that for the purposes of the scheme any future
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