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(a) the number of HMOCS members in service in 1997; and on how
long they remain in service after 1997; and
(b) Hong Kong Civil Service salary increases between now and
1997.
Annex A sets out the "best", "worst" and "probable" case estimates
for the number of eligible HMOCS officers.
17.
The likely cost of a modified compensation scheme, based on our
best estimate of the number of HMOCS members likely to remain in
service and current Hong Kong Civil Service salaries (assuming that salaries do no more than keep pace with inflation) is [£16 million].
But the cost could be as high as £42 million in the unlikely event
that all eligible HMOCS officers were to remain until normal
retirement age and all contract officers who had the option to
transfer to permanent and pensionable terms chose to do so.
Equally, if a high proportion of HMOCS officers were to leave in
1997 or shortly thereafter, the cost could be very low (ie a few million pounds). By comparison, the likely cost of a traditional
General Compensation Scheme would be about [£130 million] (but could
vary between £163 million and £57 million).
18. The cost of the scheme could increase significantly, however, if there were further large increases in Hong Kong Civil Service salaries between now and 1997. We cannot rule out the possibility that the Hong Kong Government will continue to increase salaries for civil servants above the level of inflation in order to keep them in
place. One way of avoiding an open-ended commitment might be to build in a provision for HMG to review the benefits available under
the scheme in the light of prevailing salary levels in 1997 or to
postpone announcing a decision until much nearer 1997.
But a built-in review provision would create so much uncertainty as to make the scheme almost worthless in the eyes of HMOCS officers.
Postponing a decision would also be difficult because the 390
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