form from anyone else. Economically we are perfectly able to run ourselves. And it is not as much of a pipe dream as you may think. My scenario foresees considerable, to use the fashionable word, turmoil in China in the next two to three years, stagflation of the worst kind, and civic unrest, especially in the south and west. The old boys up in Beijing are going to be so busy they are going to have very little time to bother with what goes on in Hong Kong, and at best, or should I say at worst, they will survive by the skin of their teeth having sacrificed one or two of their number in the process and end up with a much weakened Central Government and a very much stronger provincial system. At worst for them, and at best for us, they will be overthrown completely and a liberal Government on the lines of Hungary, Poland, etc. will be in power, which would allow possibly not full, but quasi-full independence. The odds are, however, that the whole thing will explode into a Civil War and then independence for Hong Kong will probably be the only possible way out, and the support and protection of the United States would be certain. In that scenario what will be very important will be to get rid of our present British Civil Service Government as fast as we can because they will hold us back and hesitate about every little unconventional modernisation necessary, just as they have been doing in the last ten years.
Now you may be a bit shocked that I have said all this in public, but I can assure you that if you ran a public opinion poll today, an overwhelming majority of our population would opt for independence, and many a businessman who is now bending silently under the cold east wind is thinking what I have just said.
So could it really happen? Well, after what has happened in Berlin last month, events which even a couple of months ago were unthinkable, I personally think that, just as in Eastern Europe here also everything is possible.
You will now accuse me of not being practical. I think I am being practical. But assuming you are right and we cannot have independence, what else is there
Most of our intelligent and reasonably well off inhabitants are answering that question with their feet. They are leaving, and no pious appeals to patriotism or references to a lower standard of living wherever they go will make them change their minds, and with what is going on in China now, who can blame them. So unless we have a turnabout in China and a liberal Government of some sort installed, everybody will be leaving. I have already suggested in previous speeches that the only way we can deal with this and thereby kill two birds with one stone is to internationalise our population, to import as many expats from as many countries as possible as fast as possible, not only to take the place of those who are leaving, but also to make things a little bit more difficult for a reactionary Chinese Government when in charge of the S.A.R. to enforce draconian methods without the rest of the world knowing what they are doing. I would like to see at least 5% of our population, and preferrably 10% of our population, to be non-Chinese. (If we gained our independence the problem would be reversed and we would have difficulties accommodating all the returnees!).
In addition, we must do everything possible to internationalise the city by making sure that our laws do not discourage international operations to operate here, which, unfortunately, our Government does not seem to be able to understand since recent attempts at regulatory powers have certainly made some of us think that we might be better off being quoted on the London rather than the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
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