RESTRICTED
005774
MDHIAN 3969 •
THE EUROPEAN SCENE
LIKE EVERYTHING ELSE, THE WAY WE THINK ABOUT OUR DEFENCE IS HAVING TO ADAPT TO THE RAPIDLY CHANGING POLITICAL AND SECURITY SCENE IN EUROPE. I WANT TONIGHT TO TALK ABOUT THE CHANGES WE SEE SEMI COL HOW NATO IS ADAPTING AND THE KIND OF CONTRIBUTION WE THINK EUROPE PARTICULARLY THE WESTERN EUROPEAN UNION (WEU) - CAN MAKE TO EUROPES OWN DEFENCE AND TO THE COMMON EFFORT.
SIX YEARS SINCE I CEASED BEING A MINISTER OF STATE AT THE FCO (1983-
86) AND WAS CLOSELY INVOLVED IN FOREIGN POLICY AND DEFENCE MATTERS.
THE WORLD HAS CHANGED.
WILL NOT HERE REHEARSE THOSE CHANGES. SUFFICIENT TO STRESS THEIR UNPREDICTABILITY. ATTEMPTS TO PREDICTION OFTEN WRONG. SOME WERE FORECASTING GORBACHEVS FALL QUOTE WITHIN SIX MONTHS UNQUOTE EVEN IN 1986 BUT FEW FORESAW THE EVENTUAL MANNER OF HIS GOING. STILL LESS
THE TRANSFORMATION OF USSR INTO CIS WHICH MAY ITSELF PROVE A
TRANSITORY STAGE.
wwwww
MIGHT NOTE HERE THAT INACCURATE PREDICTIONS ARE NOT CONFINED TO
FOREIGN AFFAIRS: MOST COMMENTATORS FAILED RIGHT UP TO AND EVEN
BEYOND THE LAST MINUTE TO FORECAST CORRECTLY THE RESULT OF THE
RECENT GENERAL ELECTION HERE.
IN 1986 THE USSR WAS STILL IN AFGHANISTAN, POLAND, HUNGARY, CZECHOSLOVAKIA, AND THE GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC SEMI COL THE BERLIN WALL STILL STOOD SEMI COL GERMANY WAS NOT UNITED SEMI ALBANIA WAS A COMMUNIST BACKWATER SEMI COL CEAUSESCU REIGNED IN
ROMANIA SEMI COL YOGOSLAVIA WAS A SINGLE COUNTRY.
COL
THE COLD WAR WAS STILL INTENSE - ALTHOUGH DEFROSTING SOMEWHAT, THANKS TO GORBACHEV.
THE CHANGES SINCE 1986 HAVE MOSTLY BEEN BENIGN, WELCOME. BUT THE NEW EUROPE IS A LESS PREDICTABLE PLACE THAN THAT OF THE AWFUL CERTAINTIES OF EAST-WEST, BLOC TO BLOC CONFRONTATION.
AND THE EVENTS OF THE PAST FEW YEARS SUGGEST THAT CERTAINTIES, PREDICTABILITIES ARE NOT TO BE FOUND.
W
DEFENCE.
2
PAGE
RESTRICTED
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.