TNAG-2063-FCO40-2941-Vietnamese-boat-people-repatriation-1990 — Page 32

CONFIDENTIAL

1.

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO DESKBY 041415Z FCO

TELNO 1461

OF 041229Z MAY 90

HKD

243 13 1

RECEIVED IN REC

OF COPY

17 MAYOQIST?

INFO IMMEDIATE UKMIS GENEVA, WASHINGTON, HANOI

INFO PRIORITY MANILA

063718 MDHIAN 9286

MY TELNO 1432: VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE: STEERING COMMITTEE IN

MANILA

WE NEED TO THINK CAREFULLY ABOUT HOW WE SHOULD TACKLE THE MANDATORY REPATRIATION ISSUE AT THE MANILA MEETING. NO DOUBT THE AMERICANS WILL TRY TO BLOCK OR DIVERT DISCUSSION OF THIS ISSUE. BUT FOR US IT IS THE KEY MATTER ON WHICH WE NEED TO MAKE REAL PROGRESS AT MANILA.

2. OUR OBJECTIVES SHOULD REMAIN TO GET GENERAL AGREEMENT ON EITHER AN EARLY DATE FOR MANDATORY REPATRIATION, WITHOUT CAVEATS ADDED ON THE MEANS USED, OR PHASING IN MANDATORY REPATRIATION AS THE NUMBER OF VOLUNTEERS FALLS BELOW A SPECIFIC LEVEL.

3. BUT WHAT IF WE FAIL BECAUSE OF AMERICAN OR VIETNAMESE INTRANSIGENCE ? AT THE GENEVA MEETING THE AMERICANS PROPOSED A MORATORIUM ON MANDATORY REPATRIATION UP TO 1 JANUARY 1991 AND THE VIETNAMESE UP TO 1 OCTOBER. ALTHOUGH BOTH OF THESE DATE ARE WELL BEYOND WHAT WE WOULD LIKE, AND NEED, EITHER WOULD BE BETTER, PROVIDING SOME NECESSARY PROCEDURES FOR EMERGENCIES ARE INCLUDED, JHAN CONTINUING INABILITY TO SEND BACK NON-VOLUNTEERS WHICH COULD LAST FOR YEARS WITH DISASTROUS CONSEQUENCES.

4. THERE IS THEREFORE A CASE, IF OUR FIRST OBJECTIVE FAILS, FOR HAVING A FALLBACK UNDER WHICH WE WOULD PICK UP WHERE THE GENEVA MEETING LEFT OFF AND AGREE TO A MORATORIUM ON INVOLUNTARY REPATRIATION UNTIL A FIXED ATE, EITHER 1 OCTOBER OR 1 JANUARY. IT WOULD BE ESSENTIAL TO INCLUDE THE PROVISO THAT, IF THE FLOW OF BOAT PEOPLE BECAME UNMANAGEABLE MEANWHILE, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE AN EMERGENCY MEETING TO WORK OUT EMERGENCY MEASURES TO DEAL WITH THE CRISIS.

5. GRATEFUL FOR YOUR VIEWS. IF WE ARE TO HAVE THIS FALLBACK POSITION UP OUR SLEEVES WE WILL NEED TO DO SOME ADVANCE LOBBYING IN SYMPATHETIC CAPITALS.

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CONFIDENTIAL