JASECRET
103115
MDHOAN 8509
PROBABILITY THAT ANY SUCCESSFUL PUSH-OFF POLICY WOULD RESULT IN ALL VIETNAMESE LANDING ON THEIR SHORES (SINCE FEW VESSELS WOULD BE ABLE TO REACH TAIWAN OR JAPAN). WE SHOULD THEN NEED TO EXPLAIN WHY WE WERE CURRENTLY UNABLE TO IMPLEMENT MANDATORY REPATRIATION.
5. OUR PROPOSAL WOULD BE THAT THE SCREENED-OUT SHOULD BE HANDED OVER TO THE CHINESE AT MAN KAM TO, AT THE SAME TIME AS THE DAILY RETURN OF CHINESE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS. THE CHINESE WOULD THEN RETURN THEM BY BUS OR TRUCK ACROSS SOUTH CHINA AND PUT THEM BACK OVER THE LAND BORDER. WE MIGHT BE PREPARED TO MEET SOME, OR PERHAPS ALL, OF THE COSTS INVOLVED.
6.
I SHOULD BE GRATEFUL FOR YOUR VIEWS ON RUNNING THIS PROPOSAL. MINISTERS ACCEPT THAT WE MAY MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS WITH THE CHINESE. BUT THE EXERCISE MIGHT NEVERTHELESS BE OF TACTICAL VALUE, LIKE OUR APPROACH TO THE AMERICANS OVER GUAM. IN ANY CASE, RECENT CHINESE STATEMENTS PROVIDE A GOOD OPENING FOR SUCH AN APPROACH, WHICH WE SHOULD LIKE TO EXPLOIT. THERE MAY INDEED BE A SLIM POSSIBILITY THAT WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO RETURN AT LEAST AN INITIAL GROUP OF VIETNAMESE IN THIS WAY, THOUGH THE TIME TO DO SO MIGHT BE WHEN THE BACKLOG OF VOLUNTEERS HAD BEEN CLEARED AND WE NEEDED TO PREVENT OUR REPATRIATION POLICY FROM
STALLING.
7. COULD YOU ALSO CONSIDER WHERE AND AT WHAT LEVEL AN APPROACH TO THE CHINESE MIGHT BE MADE. OUR INITIAL THOUGHT IS THAT THIS MIGHT BE IN THE FORM OF A FIRM PROPOSAL FROM THE POLITICAL ADVISER TO NCNA, PERHAPS FOLLOWED UP BY A DEMARCHE IN PEKING.
8.
IFT (NOT TO ALL) CONTAINS FURTHER IDEAS FOR ENCOURAGING OTHERS TO SHOULDER PART OF THE VBP BURDEN.
HURD
YYYY
MAIN
113
DISTRIBUTION
123
.VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE IN HK
RMD
PS
PS/MR MAUDE
PS/MR SAINSBURY
PS/LORD BRABAZON
PS/MRS CHALKER
LIMITED
HKD
SEAD
UND
LEGAL ADVISERS
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