CONFIDENTIAL
00/07
7
MDHIAN
THEIR MATERIAL WELL-BEING IN HONG KONG. THE 1991 ELECTIONS WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE THE COMMUNITY'S INVOLVEMENT IN PUBLIC AFFAIRS. IT WILL NOT BE EASY, BUT THERE IS SOME CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM IN THE FACT THAT AN ADDITIONAL 160,000 PEOPLE HAVE REGISTERED AS VOTERS DURING THE CURRENT CAMPAIGN. THE MOST DIFFICULT AREA WILL BE TO GET A RANGE OF CANDIDATE FROM ACROSS THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM TO STAND, CALLING FOR MORE DIRECT ELECTIONS TENDS TO MORE POPULAR THAN TAKING PART IN THEM.
EMIGRATION
4. THE OUTFLOWS DURING 1988 AND 1989 WERE 45,800 AND 42,800 RESPECTIVELY. OUR ESTIMATE FOR THIS YEAR IS 62,000. DURING THE NEXT SIX YEARS, SOME 400,000 PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO LEAVE. THE MOST COMMON REASON GIVEN BY THOSE PLANNING TO EMIGRATE ARE: LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG: CONCERN ABOUT HUMAN RIGHTS AFTER 1997: AND ANXIETY ABOUT A RESURGENCE OF CORRUPTION.
5. THE OUTFLOW INCLUDES A HIGH PROPORTION OF THE WELL-EDUCATED AND PROFESSIONALLY-QUALIFIED MIDDLE-CLASS IN HONG KONG. SURVEYS CONDUCTED BY PROFESSIONAL BODIES CONTINUE TO REPORT HIGH PERCENTAGES OF THEIR MEMBERS PLANNING TO EMIGRATE. BECAUSE INDIVIDUALS NOW FEEL ABLE TO ASSESS THEIR PROSPECTS UNDER CHINESE RULE, AN INCREASING NUMBER ARE MAKING FIRM DECISIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT TO TRY TO LEAVE. IN ONE SURVEY, 32 PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED SAID THAT THEY HOPED TO EMIGRATE (1.4 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS YEAR), WHILE 63 PERCENT INTENDED TO STAY (3 PERCENT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS YEAR). THE PROPORTION OF THOSE UNDECIDED HAD FALLEN CORRESPONDINGLY.
PERCEPTIONS OF BRITAIN
6. THE UK'S IMAGE IN HONG KONG HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. THE PUBLIC HAS RESPONDED POSITIVELY TOWARDS HMG'S HONG KONG POLICIES: THE BLEND OF FIRMNESS AND WILLINGNESS TO TALK TO PEKING CE.G. MR MAUDE'S VISIT): AND THE REFUSAL TO GIVE WAY TO BRITISH OR CHINESE CRITICISMS OF THE UK NATIONALITY PACKAGE. THE IMPROVED POSITION ON VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE (SEE PARA 12 BELOW) AND THE UK'S RESPONSE TO THE MIDDLE EAST CRISIS HAVE ALSO HELPED. BUT THE CHANGE IN PUBLIC MOOD IS INEVITABLY FRAGILE. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR OPINION TO SWING BACK AGAIN.
THE ECONOMY
7. THE COMMUNITY IS STILL SHOWING CONFIDENCE IN THE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTABILITY OF THE HONG KONG ECONOMY. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS PUBLIC ANXIETY ABOUT SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS. ECONOMIC GROWTH IS
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