CONFIDENTIAL
163712
MDHIAN 7660
CONTRIBUTED TO THIS IMPROVEMENT.
BRITISH NATIONALITY
4 =
OUR TELNO 1181 OF 5 APRIL REPORTED ON IMMEDIATE REACTION IN SOME DETAIL. THE SCHEME HAS AROUSED INTENSE INTEREST AND A STRONG DESIRE FOR INCLUSION AMONGST MANY SECTORS. INEVITABLY, THE DISAPPOINTMENT OF THOSE NOT INCLUDED WILL LEAD TO SOME NEGATIVE COMMENTS FROM THEM ON ITS LIKELY OVERALL EFFECT. BUT, JUDGING FROM INDIVIDUAL REACTION SO FAR, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE A MARKED POSITIVE EFFECT ON THOSE WHO EVENTUALLY BENEFIT. WE EXPECT FURTHER COMMENT TO EMERGE, AS UNDERSTANDING OF THE SCHEME SPREADS, FROM THOSE WHO EXPECT TO BE EXCLUDED. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT OPPOSITION TO THE SCHEME EXCEPT FROM CHINESE SOURCES.
VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE
5.
THE PUBLIC DEBATE ON THIS ISSUE HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SUBDUED OVER RECENT WEEKS. THE LOW LEVEL OF ARRIVALS DURING THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE YEAR PROBABLY ACCOUNTS FOR THIS. NONE THE LESS, THERE REMAINS WIDESPREAD ANXIETY ABOUT THE LACK OF PROGRESS IN TALKS ON MANDATORY REPATRIATION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR
INFLUX AGAIN THIS YEAR.
THE HONG KONG ALLIANCE
THE ASCENDANCY OF THE CONSERVATIVES IN PEKING AND MAINLAND ATTACKS ON THE ALLIANCE HAVE CONVINCED MANY OF ITS FOLLOWERS TO OFFER PASSIVE SUPPORT ONLY. THE ALLIANCE HAS CONTINUED TO ARRANGE RALLIES AND SIMILAR EVENTS, BUT ATTENDANCE HAS BEEN WAY BELOW THE MASSIVE TURN-OUTS SEEN IN 1989. THE ALLIANCE PLANS VARIOUS FUNCTIONS TO MARK THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF IMPORTANT DATES UP TO 4 JUNE. WHILST LARGE TURN-OUTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT SOME, PARTICULARLY AROUND 4 JUNE, IT SEEMS CLEAR THAT THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE WILL WISH TO AVOID ANTAGONISING PEKING BY PARTICIPATION IN MASS PROTESTS.
EMIGRATION
7.
OUTFLOWS DURING 1988 AND 1989 WERE 45,800 AND 42,800 RESPECTIVELY AND THE ESTIMATED OUTFLOW FOR 1990 IS 55,000. FEEDBACK REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF INTEREST IN EMIGRATION.
ECONOMY
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CONFIDENTIAL
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