CONFIDENTIAL
FM BTC HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 2813OOZ DTI
TELNO OTTER 278
CONFIDENTIAL
HKD 340/14
RECEIVED DEC
ADVANCE COPY
DESK
INDEX
CER
PA
OF 28110OZ DECEMBER 90
INFO IMMEDIATE FCO
(77)
046573
MDADAN 0829
Shore
Mr Shoe
Ry212
Mr Timess
ress
G.
Md th
L
FOR OT2/2
VISIT OF SECRETARY OF STATE FOR TRADE AND INDUSTRY: SPEECHES
1. ALAN MURRAY'S FAXED LETTER TO PAUL MADDEN IN TOKYO OF 20
DECEMBER WAS NOT SEEN HERE UNTIL 27 DECEMBER.
2. I HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT SPEECHES, MAJOR PARTS OF WHICH ARE JAPAN ORIENTATED.
3. NEVERTHELESS THE MULTILATERAL THEMES I AM SURE STRIKE THE RIGHT NOTE FOR HONG KONG AS WELL.
4. THERE WILL BE INTEREST IN THE GATT TALKS. SINCE MR LILLEY WAS SO ACTIVELY INVOLVED I SUGGEST THAT IF HE WERE ABLE TO INJECT MORE OF A PERSONAL NOTE INTO HIS COMMENTS THEN THAT WOULD GIVE THEM ADDED INTEREST. I ALSO ASSUME THAT THERE WILL BE MORE COMMENTS RELEVANT TO HONG KONG'S TRADE INTERESTS UNDER THIS HEADING EG TEXTILES. ANY PREDICITIONS ON THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME IN
SUCH AREAS WOULD ALSO INTEREST LOCAL AUDIENCES. THE PASSAGE ON THE UK ECONOMY IS WELCOME SINCE THE BAD NEWS IS BEGINNING TO GET
QUITE A LOT OF PUBLICITY AND NEEDS REBUTTING. A HONG KONG
AUDIENCE WILL BE INTERESTED IN BRITAIN CONTINUING TO BE A MAJOR BUYER OF HONG KONG MANUFACTURED GOOD. THERE IS NERVOUSNESS THAT RECESSION IN THE UNITED STATES, BRITAIN AND ELSEWHERE WILL HAVE A SHARPLY LOWERING EFFECTING UPON HONG KONG EXPORTS. THE SPEECH WOULD THUS HAVE AN ADDED INTEREST IF AN AWARENESS OF THIS FACTOR WOULD BE WORKED IN, BACKED BY SOME CURRENT STATISTICS (BEST OBTAINED FROM THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE IN LONDON) OF HONG
KONG SALES IN THE UK. IT COULD ALSO POINT OUT THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE TRADE BALANCE IS IN HONG KONG'S FAVOUR CALTHOUGH LESS SO, THE HKG WOULD POINT OUT IF INVISIBLES ARE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT).
5. UNLIKE JAPAN, HONG KONG HAS NOT BEEN A RAPIDLY RISING MARKET FOR BRITISH GOODS. WE ARE DOING QUITE WELL, BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN ONE OF JUST ABOUT HOLDING OUR OWN, WITH THE RISE IN VALUE OF
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