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CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG
TO DESKBY 12090OZ FCO
HKB 026/3
RECEIVER
0 8 FEB 1990
DES
TELNO 150
INDEX
OF 120635Z JANUARY 90
INFO ROUTINE PEKING
701
010353 MDHIAN 2247
QY
Ou Taken
TOP COP Q DIST ?
CORRECTED VERSION (PARA 4 LINE 3)
SECRETARY OF STATE'S VISIT: HONG KONG MOOD
CONFIDENCE: GENERAL
1.
FEEDBACK REPORTS SUGGEST THAT CONFIDENCE IN HONG KONG'S FUTURE IS AT LOW EBB. THE MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING CONFIDENCE HAVE BEEN EVENTS IN CHINA AND CHINA'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE TERRITORY. THERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT AWAY FROM THE BELIEF HELD BY MANY PREVIOUSLY THAT HONG KONG'S DESTINY LIES TO A LARGE EXTENT IN ITS OWN HANDS: THE REMEDY IS NOW SEEN FIRMLY TO DEPEND ON A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN THE CPG WHICH MUST OCCUR QUICKLY. EVENTS IN EASTERN EUROPE HAVE RAISED HOPES (OR WISHFUL THINKING) THAT THE PRESENT CHINESE REGIME COULD SIMILARLY BE OVERTHROWN AND RESULT IN AN ACCEPTABLE FUTURE FOR HONG KONG. THE UNEXPECTEDLY LARGE NUMBER WHICH RESPONDED TO THE
ALLIANCE-ORGANISED DEMONSTRATIONS AT THE NEW YEAR WAS A MANIFESTATION OF THIS FEELING. SOME, HOWEVER BELIEVE THAT THE CHINESE LEADERSHIP WILL BECOME EVEN MORE REPRESSIVE IN ORDER TO
PROTECT ITSELF.
2.
THE CONVERSE IS THAT THE MORE PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT THE ANSWER TO HONG KONG'S FUTURE LIES OUTSIDE HONG KONG, THE LESS CONFIDENCE THERE IS IN DOMESTIC MEASURES SUCH AS INFRASTRUCTURAL INVESTMENT, IMPROVED EDUCATION, AMENITY IMPROVEMENT ETC. AN EXAMPLE IS THE MASSIVE PORT DEVELOPMENT PROPOSAL WHICH IN HEADIER DAYS WOULD HAVE BEEN PERCEIVED AS A MAJOR BOOST FOR HONG KONG. THE REACTION NOW HAS
BEEN ONE OF CONCERN OVER WHETHER THE DEVELOPMENT CAN IN FACT BE
FUNDED OR NOT AND THAT IT WILL RESULT IN HIGHER TAXES AND CUT-BACKS IN OTHER AREAS.
3.
THE
OTHER TRENDS WHICH INDICATE A GROWING LOSS OF CONFIDENCE ARE
INCREASED WILLINGNESS NOW OF INDIVIDUALS:
(A) TO ADMIT TO AND DISCUSS THEIR PLANS FOR EMIGRATION: AND (B) TO PUSH FOR MEASURES, SUCH AS AN INCREASED PACE OF DEMOCRATISATION, REGARDLESS OF KNOWN CHINESE DISPLEASURE. BUT WHEN DISPUTES OCCUR PUBLICLY THE DEEP-SEATED AVERSION TO CONFLICT WITH
THE MAINLAND AGAIN BECOMES A FACTOR.
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CONFIDENTIAL
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