TNAG-2029-FCO40-2891-Hong-Kong-freezing-of-Kuwaiti-and-Iraqi-assets-1990 — Page 36

CONFIDENTIAL

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CATHAY PACIFIC FLIGHTS TO THE GULF

1.

CPA's decision to suspend flights through the Middle East after 10 January is likely to cut across our plans for the

evacuation of UK citizens from the Gulf in the event of

hostilities breaking out. On a preagreed date (currently under review but possibly 10 January) missions in the Gulf will notify their local British communities through a warden system that all non-essential personnel and dependents are advised to leave the

country as soon as possible (phase II advice). This will

inevitably result in a sudden heavy demand on carriers out of the

Gulf. CPA's withdrawal before the agreed date will make it

difficult for UK citizens to comply with the phase II advice, and

the problem is likely to be compounded by the risk that other

carriers might be forced or encouraged to follow CPA's example.

In addition to the timing of the suspension of flights, the

public announcement of the decision is likely in itself to have a

DECAAJ

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Simon Lovett

2623