CONFIDENTIAL
071345
MDLIAN 3539
IMPLEMENTATION BY OTHER COUNTRIES
5. U S IDENTIFIED JORDAN AS ONE OF THE MAIN PROBLEM COUNTRIES. BUSH WOULD SPEAK FIRMLY TO KING HUSSEIN. NORWAY SAID THAT JORDANIAN POLICE HAD BOARDED A NORWEGIAN SHIP TO FORCE THE CAPTAIN TO UNLOAD GRAIN DESTINED FOR IRAQ, DESPITE NORWEGIAN INSTRUCTIONS TO THE CAPTAIN NOT TO UNLOAD. UK AGREED THAT ALL THE EVIDENCE SHOWED JORDANIAN NON-COMLIANCE, AND NOTED THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC PRESSURES ON KING HUSSEIN.
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6. US SAID BRAZIL APPEARED TO BE IMPLEMENTING THE EMBARGO PROPERLY. THE BRAZILIANS HAD RECENTLY DENIED AN IRAQI REQUEST FOR SUPPLY OF FOOD. INDIA SRI LANKA AND EGYPT HAD RAISED PRIVATELY WITH THE U S THE POSSIBILITY OF COMPENSATORY ASSISTANCE UNDER ARTICLE 50 OF THE UN CHARTER. THE CHAIRMAN NOTED REPORTS THAT SRI LANKA STILL INTENDED TO EXPORT TEA TO IRAQ. THE SRI LANKAN DEFENCE MINISTER HAD CLAIMED THAT SANCTIONS WERE FOR RICH COUNTRIES. UK SAID THAT MALAYSIA, THAILAND AND THE EAST EUROPEANS COULD ALSO BE UNDER PRESSURE TO AVOID FULL IMPLEMENTATION. IT WAS ENCOURAGING THAT THE SAUDIS AND
JAPANESE APPEARED ROBUST.
EFFECTS ON IRAQ
7. THE CHAIRMAN SAID SETTLEMENT OF DIFFERENCES WITH IRAN MIGHT OPEN A DOOR FOR OIL EXPORTS AND FOOD IMPORTS. US SAID THAT EVEN IF SANCTIONS WERE FULLY IMPLEMENTED THEY WERE UNLIKELY TO BRING IMMEDIATE SEVERE DISRUPTION. SPOT SHORTAGES OF FOOD WERE ALREADY APPEARING, BUT WIDESPREAD SHORTAGE WAS UNLIKELY UNTIL WINTER. THERE WOULD BE A GRADUAL DIMINUTION OF INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY BUT VERY LITTLE IMMEDIATE EFFECT ON MILITARY CAPABILITIES. ALTHOUGH THE IRAQIS IMPORTED SOME 80 PERCENT OF FOOD, SUPPLIES OF BASIC FOODSTUFFS WERE ADEQUATE FOR 3-4 MONTHS. UK NOTED THE IMPORTANCE OF MAINTAINING AND FULLY IMPLEMENTING THE EMBARGO IF IT WAS TO HAVE THE DESIRED RESULTS. SADDAM'S RECENT CALL FOR AUSTERITY MEASURES SUGGESTED SOME CONCERN IN BAGHDAD. THE EFFECT ON THE POPULATION WAS HARD TO JUDGE. DISCONTENT MIGHT GROW, BUT THIS COULD BE COUNTERBALANCED BY FEAR OF SADDAM AND A SENSE OF NATIONAL UNITY IF SADDAM COULD PORTRAY IRAQ AS THE VICTIM RATHER THAN THE AGGRESSOR. CANADA WARNED THAT HISTORY SUGGESTED NATIONS UNDER PERCEIVED THREATS COULD HOLD OUT INDEFINITELY. NETHERLANDS SAID HIS AUTHORITIES BELIEVED THE IRAQIS MIGHT HAVE LESS THAN OTHERS THOUGHT. RICE STOCKS WOULD RUN OUT QUICKLY. IF FODDER DID NOT COME IN CATTLE WOULD SOON NEED TO BE SLAUGHTERED: IN THE LONGER TERM THAT COULD HAVE SERIOUS
IMPLICATIONS. THERE WERE NO MAINTENANCE STOCKPILES TO KEEP THE POWER
STATIONS RUNNING.
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