TNAG-2024-FCO40-2886-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-Commonwealth-countries-1990 — Page 50

Background

CONFIDENTIAL

Debt

6.

credit agencies);

World Bank projections for the end-1989 total of sub-Saharan African debt

are $131 billion. Around 70 per cent of this total is owed to multilateral

institutions and governments (including both aid and export

around 30 per cent is owed to banks and other private sources.

This total was more than

major indicators, the position

1.

significantly over this period:

double the 1982 figure of $61 billion. On all

Africa (SSA) has worsened

of

sub-Saharan

Debt: GDP

Debt: Exports

Debt service ratio

Interest due/Export ratio

1982 (per cent)

1989

(per cent; provisional)

32.5

105.4

157.9

337.7

15.1

22.4

[12.2]

[25.0]

Source: World Bank Debt Tables, 1989-90; South Africa.

figures include Nigeria but exclude

8. Over this period 29 of the 45 sub-Saharan African countries have rescheduled debts. 9 countries: Cote d'Ivoire, Madagascar, Malawi, Niger, Senegal, Nigeria,

Sudan, Togo and Zaire have rescheduled five or more times).

Adjustment

9.

There has been a general improvement in SSA economic performance since 1983,

Growth has supported by a rapid rise in aid commitments to adjusting countries. been positive on average, after negative growth over 1980-83. Export volumes have risen again after persistent decline. Food production has kept pace with

The

Owes improved performance population growth since 1984. weather but the signs are that better policies have helped.

falls in real progress has been pricing reform including significant

rates for

many members and improved agricultural pricing.

some reduction in inflation and fiscal deficits.

better

much to

The main area of

exchange

There has also been

10.

and this could

Sustained results of adjustment will take time to achieve, undermine the momentum of change, Aid requirements are not likely to diminish.

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