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CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR HONG KONG: DIPLOMATIC ACTION TO BE TAKEN
IN THE EVENT OF A MAJOR CRISIS OF CONFIDENCE
(A) ACTION WITH THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT.
1. In any crisis of confidence in Hong Kong, the attitude taken by
the Chinese Government will be crucial. This is true now, and will
be increasingly relevant as 1997 approaches. If we were faced with a mass exodus from Hong Kong it would be imperative to try to
persuade the Chinese Government to take measures to steady
confidence. Our objective should be to get across to the Chinese
the extent to which the life blood of Hong Kong was ebbing away, and
the consequent damage to Chinese interests.
It
would be
no easy task to achieve this, particularly if (as would be likely)
the crisis itself had been provoked by Chinese actions. After 1997
we would need to ensure that the Chinese did not react to the threat
of a mass exodus by restricting the freedom of movement, contrary to
the Joint Declaration.
2.
Action with the Chinese could be taken:
(a) through conventional diplomatic channels, in London, in Peking, and Hong Kong (Governor/Political Adviser and Joint Liaison
Group in Hong Kong or
(b) through less formal channels, including non official
intermediaries.
3.
Conventional diplomatic channels would probably be the most
effective. Messages conveyed through these channels would carry
more weight and there would be less danger of misunderstanding. On
the other hand, if our relations with China had deteriorated to the
point at which the arrangements for the transfer of sovereignty
stipulated in the Joint Declaration had broken down; or if the
crisis of confidence in Hong Kong had been provoked by deliberate Chinese action against the colony, then it might be necessary to
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