TNAG-2022-FCO40-2884-Chinese-use-of-force-in-respect-of-Hong-Kong-1990 — Page 12

SECKE1 UK

CABINET OFFICE

70 Whitehall London SWIA 2AS Telephone 071-270

K Walker Esq

Research and Analysis Department Foreign and Commonwealth Office

2 November 1990.

HKBC20 /16

Miss Marssen

I passed your

is

1.

THE THREAT TO HONG KONG

comment to Mr

Walker.

MOD have requested that the JIC provide an inter-departmental assessment on the threat to Hong Kong to be drawn on for the 1991 edition of the Hong Kong Garrison Withdrawal Plan. They have asked that the paper address the following:

any change in the nature of the Chinese threat and Chinese capabilities via-a-vis Hong Kong;

a.

D. allitudes of the Hong Kong population and business community to 1997;

C. potential for, and likely impact of, any serious decline in international economic confidence in Hong Kong;

d. any potential source of major unrest in the approach to 1997; and

e.

likely Chinese attitudes and responses to serious unrest in Hong Kong.

2. John Hadley in D1 (ROW) has already been in touch with his contacts in the garrison and JSIS, asking them for their views and relevant information. But I would also welcome your advice, particularly on (b), (d) and (e). I am afraid the only material I haye comes from the Far Eastern Economic Review.

3. I plan to draft the paper during the first week of December. I would be grateful, therefore, if you could let me have any comments by the end of this month.

Ms Majun

We should look out

for Mr Wightman: drain

When mun

paper. be discussed?

You

S WIGHTMAN

39.

SECRET UK EYES A