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MDHIAN 3110
(II) (III)
(IV)
(V)
B)
ROBINSON MILLING, FLOUR AND FEED MILLS, #12 MILLION: BALFOUR BEATTY, BEIJING METRO, #23 MILLION:
DAVY CORPORATION, BOHAI PHASE II, #5 MILLION: THERE ARE OTHER LARGE CONTRACTS BEING NEGOTIATED BUT ARE FURTHER FROM ACTUAL AGREEMENT THAN THOSE LISTED ABOVE. AN EXAMPLE WOULD BE THE APV ATTEMPTS TO OBTAIN CONTRACTS FOR POULTRY UNITS IN SHANDONG FOR A VALUE OF US DOLLARS 30 MILLION. THERE ARE, OF COURSE, OTHER SMALLER CONTRACTS BEING SIGNED ALL THE TIME, THOUGH THESE WOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH. MUCH REGULAR BUSINESS COULD EASSILY BE SWITCHED TO OTHER FOREIGN SUPPLIERS.
AIR SERVICES BOTH BRITISH AIRWAYS AND CATHAY PACIFIC. CONTINUED UNHELPFULNESS ON AGREEMENTS RELATED TO HONG KONG.
C)
OUTSTANDING DEBTS TO BRITISH COMPANIES: E.G. JOHN BROWN
ENGINEERING.
D) HOPE OF FURTHER BRITISH BUSINESS IN CHINA.
6. ALL IS NOT ON THE DOWN SIDE, HOWEVER. THE CHINESE MUST BE AWARE OF CERTAIN LEVERS WE HAVE, VIZ:
A) THE UK VOICE IN DECISIONS IN THE WORLD BANK OVER CONCESSIONARY FINANCING:
B)
TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY FROM THE UK:
C)
OUR VOICE ON MEMBERSHIP OF GATT:
D)
7.
POSSIBILITY OF GREATER UK COMMERCIAL INTEREST IN TAIWAN.
I HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANYTHING LIKE A MOVE TO TAKE OVER HONG KONG BEFORE 1997 BECAUSE I THINK WE ARE A LONG WAY FROM CONTEMPLATING THAT. BUT IF I HAD TO BET ON THE MOOD OF THE OLD MEN IN CHARGE AT PRESENT, I WULD NOT ALTOGETHER DISCOUNT A HANKERING TO RISK SOMETHING RASH IF THEY THOUGHT THERE WAS A DIRECT CHOICE BETWEEN NON-INTERFERENCE AND LOSING POLITICAL CONTROL IN HONG KONG IN THE MID 1990S. IN THIS CONTEXT PLEASE SEE PARAGRAPHS 12 TO 20 OF MY DESPATCH TO MR JOHN MAJOR OF 8 AUGUST 1989 ON BRITISH POLICY TOWARDS CHINA.
DONALD
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