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MDHIAN 3112
4.
INTERIM FORMULA FOR ADMINISTRATION FROM 1 JULY 1997. THE CLASSIC CHINESE METHOD FOR THIS WOULD BE SOME KIND OF APPOINTED PREPARATORY COMMITTEE, PERHAPS RELATED TO THEIR PRESENT IDEAS ON A GEC:
THEY WOULD DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY SEEK TO DETER PEOPLE IN HONG KONG FROM COOPERATING WITH THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OVER THE LEGISLATURE. HONG KONG WILL BE BETTER PLACED TO SAY HOW MUCH EFFECT THIS WOULD HAVE ON THE WILLINGNESS OF PROMINENT PEOPLE TO STAND FOR ELECTION AND OF THE ELECTORATE TO TURN OUT.
MORE WIDELY:
THEY WOULD CERTAINLY ACCUSE BRITAIN OF A FUNDAMENTAL BREACH OF THE JD. ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THAT THEY WILL IMPLEMENT IT THEMSELVES WITHOUT OUR HELP, THEY MIGHT IN THE SAME BREATH SAY THAT CERTAIN THINGS WHICH THE JD LAYS DOWN HAVE BEEN MADE IMPOSSIBLE BY BRITISH ACTIONS AND BEHAVE AS IF THEY HAD BEEN RELEASED FROM THEIR OBLIGATIONS:
THEY WOULD BE LIKELY TO WITHDRAW COOPERATION WITH US ON THE JD ACROSS THE BOARD. WORK IN THE JLG WOULD CONTINUE TO BE PARALYSED.
IN GENERAL THEY WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO PROCEED BY FIAT, TELLING US TO ORGANISE THINGS IN A CERTAIN WAY, AND THREATENING SIMPLY TO CHANGE THEM IF WE FAILED TO COMPLY:
IE
THEY WOULD BE EVEN LESS INHIBITED THAN NOW IN TAKING SPECIFIC ACTIONS AGAINST HONG KONG IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENTS HERE WHICH THEY DISLIKED: THE RECENT ACTION ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE SORT OF THING THEY COULD DO: ANY INHIBITIONS WHICH THEY MIGHT FEEL IN RETALIATING AGAINST THE NATIONALITY PACKAGE WOULD BE REMOVED:
THEY WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO COOPERATE ON THE PADS, AND MIGHT MAKE NOISES CALCULATED TO DETER INTERNATIONAL FINANCE FROM PARTICIPATING.
5. IT SEEMS TO US THAT A MORE GENERAL CONSEQUENCE OF A DECISION TO PART WITH THE BL WOULD BE THAT THE LOCAL ELEMENTS OF THE HONG KONG EXECUTIVE, AND THE LEGISLATURE WOULD HENCEFORTH BE EXCLUDED BY DEFINITION FROM ESTABLISHING A RELATIONSHIP OF TRUST WITH PEKING OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. THIS WOULD SURELY MAKE THE IMPOSITION OF A DIFFERENT SET OF RULERS IN HONG KONG IN 1997 VIRTUALLY
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