Redacted Under FOI
Exemption Sec 27(1)
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MDHIAN 3149
4. YOUR PARA 2B. IF THE TWO SENIOR MEMBERS RESIGNED, SYMPATHETIC RESIGNATIONS FROM EXCO COULD NOT BE EXCLUDED.
ON PRESENT SHOWING I DOUBT IF OTHER MEMBERS OF EXCO WOULD PUSH IT SO FAR AS RESIGNING. MANY WOULD FEEL IT A DUTY TO STAY ON REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEY THOUGHT ABOUT ANY CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE. BUT MUCH WOULD DEPEND ON THE EMOTIONAL CLIMATE AT THE TIME.
5. IN THE SCENARIO YOU PUT FORWARD, THERE MIGHT BE ONE OR TWO RESIGNATIONS FROM LEGCO AMONGST APPOINTED MEMBERS, AGAIN OUT OF LOYALTY. THERE COULD ALSO BE DRAMATISED RESIGNATIONS BY SOME ELECTED MEMBERS, EG MARTIN LEE. THESE WOULD HAVE MEDIA SIGNIFICANCE BUT I DOUBT IF THEY WOULD BE NUMEROUS. THE SUBSEQUENT BY-ELECTIONS WOULD BE HIGHLY POLITICISED. GIVEN THE LIKELY POLITICAL CLIMATE, THOSE WHO RESIGNED WOULD PROBABLY BE REPLACED BY PEOPLE OF A SIMILAR VIEW.
Redacted Under FOI
6. YOUR PARA 20. BARRING AExemption ISELY DECISION ON CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT WHICH TOTALLY 80TRAGED THE COMMUNITY, I WOULD NOT EXPECT THE RESIGNATION OF THE MAJORITY OR ALL OF LEGCO.
7. YOUR PARA 3. IF LEGCO ARE SERIOUSLY DISSATISFIED WITH ANY CONSTITUTIONAL PACKAGE, THEY HAVE A NUMBER OF OPTIONS, IN PARTICULAR:
(I) REFUSING TO VOTE THROUGH THE NECESSARY LEGISLATION:
(II) BLOCKING FINANCIAL MEASURES, PARTICULARLY WHEN THEY SEE THEM, RIGHTLY OR WRONGLY, AS UK CONNECTED, EG DEFENCE COSTS FUNDING OR FUNDING FOR VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE:
8. IF THERE WERE DRAMATIC RESIGNATIONS THE POLITICALLY ARTICULATE MEMBERS OF THE COMMUNITY WOULD BECOME VERY AGITATED IN THE SHORT TERM. SO WOULD THE MEDIA. OMELCO WOULD BE DRAWN INTO A POSITION WHERE THEY WOULD START GOING IT ALONE ON A RANGE OF ACTIONS INCLUDING LOBBYING DELEGATIONS TO LONDON. BECAUSE OF THE EXTENT TO WHICH WE RELY ON OMELCO CO-OPERATION IN A VARIETY OF WAYS (SINCE THERE IS NO GOVERNMENT MAJORITY IN LEGCO), THE SITUATION WOULD, IN GENERAL TERMS, BE DIFFICULT TO HANDLE. BROAD PUBLIC OPINION WOULD PROBABLY SHOW SOME INITIAL SYMPATHY FOR THOSE RESIGNING BUT WOULD BE PUZZLED TO KNOW WHAT IT WAS ALL ABOUT. THEY WOULD SUSPECT
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