TNAG-2008-FCO40-2856-Basic-Law-constitutional-development-in-Hong-Kong-relations-1990 — Page 46

SECRET

FM HONG KONG

TO DESKBY 19090OZ FCO

TELNO 261

OF 19082OZ JANUARY 90

SECRET

(52)

033505

HKB 012/1

RECEIVED IN RECISTRY

24 JAN 1990

DESK OFFICER

INDEX

HA

EGISTRY

aken

MDHIAN 3166

TOP COPY a Q DIST?

INFO DESKBY 20010OZ PEKING

INFO IMMEDIATE UKREP JLG HONG KONG

PERSONAL FOR MCLAREN, AUSS FROM GOVERNOR

PEKING PERSONAL FOR AMBASSADOR

UKREP JLG HONG KONG PERSONAL FOR GALSWORTHY

AS

YOUR TELNO 51: CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT

.

1 IF WE FAIL TO REACH A SENSIBLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CHINESE ON THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE SECTION OF THE BASIC LAW, IT WOULD BE BETTER FOR US NOT TO TRY TO DECIDE NOW ON 1995. THE POLITICAL SITUATION MAY CHANGE IN CHINA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. WE WOULD WANT TO GO ON TALKING TO THE CHINESE IN AN ATTEMPT TO SECURE BETTER ARRANGEMENTS IN THE BASIC LAW AND TO SAY IN PUBLIC THAT WE WERE DOING SO. WE SHOULD ALSO WANT TO MAKE THIS CLEAR TO THE CHINESE IN THE ABSENCE OF AGREEMENT NOW, SO AS TO REDUCE THE FALLOUT IF POSSIBLE. THAT FALLOUT, IN TERMS OF CHINESE REACTIONS, WILL NATURALLY BE LESS IF, IN 1991, THE NUMBER OF DIRECTLY ELECTED SEATS UPON WHICH WE DECIDE REMAINS WITHIN THE NUMBER SET OUT IN THE BASIC LAW FOR 1997.

2. IF THE NUMBER WE DECIDE ON FOR 1991 GOES BEYOND WHAT IS IN THE BASIC LAW FOR 1997, THE CONSEQUENCES COULD BE CONSIDERABLE ON A WORST CASE SCENARIO. WHETHER WE FACED SUCH A WORST CASE WOULD OF COURSE DEPEND ON THE CIRCUMSTANCES EG HOW FAR WE WENT ABOVE THE BASIC LAW AND WHAT WE MIGHT SAY ABOUT COMING DOWN TO MEET IT LATER. I WOULD EXPECT THE CHINESE REACTION TO BE EVEN STRONGER IF WE ANNOUNCED A DECISION FOR 1995 WHICH WENT FURTHER ABOVE THE BASIC LAW: THIS IS ONE REASON AGAINST MAKING SUCH A DECISION.

3. IF WE FAIL TO REACH AGREEMENT THEN, ON THE LEGISLATURE, THE CHINESE WOULD PRESUMABLY GO AHEAD WITH THEIR OWN PLANS WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ANY OF OUR INTERESTS (EG A GRAND ELECTORAL COLLEGE CONSTITUTED ACCORDING TO THEIR WISHES, DIFFERENTIAL VOTING, POSSIBLE NATIONALITY/RIGHT OF ABODE RESTRICTIONS ON MEMBERS. THEY MIGHT, NEARER 1997, START MAKING OBVIOUS ARRANGEMENTS FOR THE SARG DESIGNATE, THUS CREATING A SHADOW GOVERNMENT.

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