1000
800
600
400
200
Figure 1-3
Subscriber Estimates
HKCC
HCV
No. of Subscribers Forecast ('000)
MostLikely Range
L
חוזות
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Source: HKCC, HCV proposals ADL analysis
Year
Although HKCC's and HCV's estimates of subscribers appear high, a lower actual subscriber level, within the range we estimate, will not invalidate their proposals, but it does reduce the attractiveness of their businesses. It is significant that HKCC may have over-estimated their subscriber base especially in the earlier years, which means that their initial cash flows will be less than expected and their borrowings greater.
HCV is more aggressive than HKCC in projecting non-subscriber revenues, Figure 1-4. It is our view that HCV probably over-estimates its advertising revenues given the low viewership of individual cable TV channels, especially in the early years. HKCC, on the other hand, appears to underestimate potential non-subscriber revenues.
Arthur D Little
9
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