TNAG-1985-FCO40-2818-Presentation-of-UK-policy-on-Hong-Kong-to-the-media-1989 — Page 130

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074015 MDHIAN 4842

MAY 1989

SURVEY ON CONFIDENCE IN HONG KONG

YOU SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST CARRIES TODAY IN A FRONT PAGE STORY THE RESULTS OF THE LATEST QUARTERLY SURVEY ON CONFIDENCE BY SURVEY RESEARCH HONG KONG (SRH). THE SURVEY WAS CONDUCTED BETWEEN 21 AND 29 APRIL. AN SRH DIRECTOR IS REPORTED AS NOTING THAT MEDIA COVERAGE OF DEMONSTRATIONS IN PEKING MAY HAVE AFFECTED CONFIDENCE DURING THE TIME OF THE SURVEY.

2. THE MAIN FINDINGS ARE:-

(A) A DECLINE IN THE OVERALL POLITICAL CONFIDENCE LEVEL FROM 95 TO 89 POINTS OUT OF 100 (THE SHARPEST FALL SINCE LATE 1985):

(B) 40 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS WERE NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG (THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE JD WAS SIGNED) (CF 24 PERCENT IN JANUARY). AMONG PROFESSIONALS AND MANAGERS

THE FIGURE WAS 52 PERCENT:

(C) 21 PERCENT BELIEVED THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT COULD NOT KEEP ITS WORD (CF 10 PERCENT LAST OCTOBER):

(D) BY CONTRAST, THE SURVEY INDICATES A HIGHER LEVEL OF ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE (42 PERCENT COMPARED WITH 35 PERCENT IN JANUARY) ALTHOUGH WITH GROWING DOUBTS ABOUT THE ECONOMIC PROSPECTS

OF THE REST OF 1989.

3. IF ASKED TO COMMENT ON THESE FINDINGS, YOU MAY WISH TO POINT TO THE TIMING OF THE SURVEY IN THE WAKE OF HU YOBANG'S DEATH ON 15 APRIL AND THE SUBSEQUENT STUDENT DEMONSTRATIONS IN PEKING AND ELSEWHERE, AND THE INEVITABLE SENSITIVITY OF PEOPLE IN HONG KONG TO EVENTS IN CHINA.

WILSON

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