2.
4. It is often thought that because of our past 'special relationship' with Hong Kong, there will be a predisposition on the part of Hong Kong businesses to do business with the UK.
I believe the opposite to be the truth for reasons given below.
For understandable reasons British Ministers are sensitive about the Joint Declaration. In fact I have heard very little criticism of HMG in Hong Kong business circles about the Declaration. Many do not like it, most do not trust it, but few outside the 'political' circle think that HMG could have achieved something much better. On the other hand there is intense resentment by Chinese high and low at HMG's decisions about nationality and about passports. The attitude is that we stressed how "British" Hong Kong Chinese were while it suited us, but now we turn them away. There is thus a widespread resentment of Britain which does not extend to any other country. If 'emotion' therefore has a role to play it will act to our disadvantage. This will be compounded now that the inhabitants of Macao can move to Portugal and thence to the U.K. Apart from anything else we have inflicted a monumental 'loss of face' on the Hong Kong Chinese.
An even more important consideration is the way in which Hong Kong Chinese actually do business. They are pragmatic and motivated by profit. However they are also suspicious of non-Chinese and indeed even of other Chinese outside their own circle of family and acquaintances. When it comes to overseas business they will always by preference do business with "extended family" members and overseas Chinese communities. These families and communities are building up rapidly in the U.S., Canada and Australia and this is where the business and investment will go. This particularly applies to the medium-sized firms who will be the big firms of the future.
From the above I conclude that:
(1) The current efforts of HMG (set out in Mr Mclaren's letter) are indeed useful both in raising awareness of HK among British firms and in helping British firms get in on major projects. However they barely reach the bulk of the Chinese community who are actually going to conduct more and more of the business.
(2) The traditional civil service manned Trade Commissioner's
office is not the right solution for the wholly unique circumstances prevailing in Hong Kong. Serious consideration should be given to "privatising" this office. It should be in the charge of a high-profile businessman rather than an official and should be financed by and be part of a commercial body e.g. the CBI - perhaps indirectly subsidised by HMG.
(It is interesting that the Hong Kong Trade Development Office is a semi-independent statutory quango and not a government
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