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3. A MORE WORRYING FEATURE IN THE ECONOMY IS THE EMIGRATION
PICTURE. THE ELITE ARE RESTLESS IF NOT ACTUALLY ON THE MOVE. APPLIC- ATIONS FOR PASSPORTS, VISAS AND RIGHT OF ABODE CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AUSTRALIAN, CANADIAN, US, SINGAPORE AND OTHER CONSULAR POSTS IN HONG KONG. EVEN AMONG LOCALLY ENGAGES STAFF IN THIS SMALL OFFICE ONE LEAVES FOR CANADA THIS WEEK(AND SAID AT HER FAREWELL PARTY THAT THER FAMILY'S GOING WAS A DIRECT RESULT OF TIANANMEN SQUARE), AND ONE FOR AUSTRALIA AT THE END OF THE MONTH. ONE BRITISH COMPANY HAS TAKEN AN ANONYMOUS POLL AMONG ALL ITS STAFF AND FOUND THAT HALF
HAD APPLIED FOR OTHER PASSPORTS, AND ALL SAID THEY WOULD TRY TO LEAVE BY 1997. THIS SITUATION ADDED TO AN ALREADY TIGHT LABOUR MARKET IS CAUSING DIFFICULTIES, ESPECIALLY AT MANAGEMENT LEVEL. MANY BRITISH COMPANIES WORRY THAT THIS LOSS OF MANAGEMENT AND OTHER
SKILLS WILL SERIOUSLY BLUNT THEIR COMPETITIVENESS AND EVEN IN EXTREMIS THEIR ABILITY TO STAY IN HONG KONG. BRITISH COMPANIES ARE ANXIOUSLY AWAITING HMG'S NATIONALITY PACKAGE AND BELIEVE THAT A PROMISE OF A RIGHT OF ABODE IN THE UK FOR SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR WILL BE NECESSARY TO ENABLE THEM TO KEEP KEY STAFF IN PLACE. FOR ALL THIS, HONG KONG REMAINS A HIGHLY COSMOPOLITAN CITY WITH A MULTIPLICY OF BRITISH AND FOREIGN COMPANIES IN PLACE, ALL GENEROUSLY PROVIDED WITH EXPATRIATE STAFF, AND THERE IS NO SIGN THAT ANY ARE CONSIDERING LEAVING OR WINDING DOWN.
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A POSITIVE FACTOR IS THE PROSPECT FOR MAJOR PROJECTS. FOREMOST IS THE AIRPORT, ON WHICH AN ANNOUNCEMENT IS EXPECTED IN EARLY OCTOBER. IT IS LIKELY TO INVOLVE FLATTENING AN ISLAND, FILLING IN A BAY, BUILDING THREE MAJOR BRIDGES, ONE OF WHICH WILL BE THE SIZE OF THE HUMBER BRIDGE, AND MORE. IT WILL BE ONE OF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST PROJECTS. ALL TO BE COMPLETED BY 1997. BRITISH COMPANIES ARE POISED TO PARTICIPATE BUT THE WILLINGNESS OF CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES AND SOURCES OF FINANCE TO BECOME INVOLVED ON THE SCALE REQUIRED WILL ITSELF BE A TEST OF INTERNATIONAL CONFIDENCE IN HONG KONG. PLANS FOR OTHER MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE APACE, INCLUDING SUBSTANTIAL ADDITIONAL POWER GENERATING CAPACITY, A LIKELY THIRD HARBOUR CROSSING, AND CONTANER PORT EXTENSIONS AMONG OTHERS.
5. HONG KONG'S ECONOMY CONTINUES TO INTERTWINE WITH THAT OF SOUGHERN CHINA, PARTICULARLY GUANGDONG PROVINCE AND THE SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONES JUST ACROSS THE BORDER. SHOULD THERE BE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CHINA'S OPEN DOOR POLICY TOWARDS FOREIGN INVESTMENT OR AN ECONOMIC DOWNTURN BROUGHT ABOUT BY A SHIFTING OF GOVERNMENT POLICIES OR A DRYING UP OF FOREIGN CAPITAL, THIS WOULD INEVITABLY DAMAGE THE HONG KONG ECONOMY. BETWEEN 1.5M AND 3.OM GUANGDONG WORKERS (MORE THAN THE TERRITORY'S TOTAL MANUFACTURING WORKFORCE) ARE EMPLOYED BY
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