TNAG-1941-FCO40-2767-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 59

SECRET UK EYES A

eased the anxieties experienced over the future of funding of the

DF.

65.

A draft Paper by Sec (0) (C) entitled "Belize Garrison Policy

Review" has concluded that it is no easier than ever to forecast

a date for withdrawal of the British Garrison. The prime requisite remains a settlement between Belize and Guatemala and serious negotiations are unlikely to recommence until 1991 at the earliest; their progress thereafter is not easy to forecast. The link between withdrawal of the garrison and a settlement cannot be dissolved and a subsidiary requirement for a withdrawal without causing instability is depedent upon the existence of a credible BDF; progress towards this goal is slow but not unpromising. There remains the question of the desirability of

a residual British presence after a settlement and the management

of a withdrawal. The draft Paper concludes that, subject to the agreement of Ministers, the planning assumption for expenditure on the garrison should be increased to 5 years but should then be subject to further review.

66. The Falklands and Ascension Island, and South Georgia.As

directed by the 1988 00A Strategy Review, our force capability in

the South Atlantic has been reviewed following the Argentine

elections of May 1989 and it has been concluded that with the

military threat from Argentina remaining low (they have no

intention of retaking the islands by force, and they manifestly

lack the capability to do so), our defence posture and present force capability in the islands is correct. The possibility of 'maverick' attack by individuals or small groups of Argentines,

acting either on their own initiative or with the connivance of

authority, cannot be ruled out. However, since there could never

be total defence against such small scale action, there is no

justification to increase force levels to meet such an

eventuality.

67. The forces at the disposal of CBFFI remain therefore at the

level established by the Force Level Review 1985 and confirmed in

1987. In the past year, with two years' experience since the

move from Stanley to Mount Pleasant, there have been minor

SECRET UK EYES A

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