16.
SECRET
UK EYES A
Moscow will continue to depend on arms transfers as one
of its primary sources of hard currency revenues and this will almost certainly entail the maintenance of close
relationships, at least in the military field, with radical Arab states such as Libya, Syria and Iraq. The USSR will probably be successful in improving its relations with Iran, including the sale of arms.
17. To the extent that unhappy memories such as Afghanistan will rapidly fade and that the USSR seems very likely to adopt rather more sophisticated, less ideologically-based, policies in the Third World, Moscow will be a more effective competitor for influence. There may, however, be few areas where Russian moves impinge on United Kingdom interests directly, and detrimentally. With the expected decline in Soviet support for Cuba, the USSR will have an even more restricted role in
the Caribbean, and certainly none to affect our particular concerns. There is some prospect of the USSR establishing closer relations with Argentina which could lead to the supply of arms and perhaps military technical assistance. There would be sound practical advantages, in that trade between the two is generally very heavily weighted in Argentina's favour
with its substantial grain sales to the Soviet Union.
Argentina's fiercely anti-Communist sentiment, which has precluded a warm relationship with the USSR up to now, may be assuaged by new-style, less ideological approaches from
Moscow.
18. Southern Africa is an area where the USSR's profile is likely to be lower than at present, with its encouragement to Angola and Mozambique to resolve their domestic problems by negotiation. On the other hand, Russian influence on the
group of Front Line states to adopt a less confrontational
policy in respect of development in the republic of South Africa, if successful, would give it considerable weight in the region. However, if the point was reached where the Black
states felt that some resort to force was unavoidable, the
anf.1s2
F-8
UK EYES A SECRET
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.