SECRET
UK EYES A
African countries are likely to remain limited and
unsophisticated.
12. The domestic politics of the republic of South Africa will remain a focus of continental hostility, but while an
argo on the export of Western military technology will make the maintenance of its military strength a recurring problem, it will nevertheless have probably acquired and SRBM capability by the year 2000 and will retain the wherewithal to deter large scale intervention by its neighbours throughout the period of the review. On the other hand, South Africa's ability to intervene in its neighbours' affairs, more or less at will, may pose problems for the United Kingdom in future if
the threatened states look to powerful Commonwealth friends
such as India for assistance.
13. Indian Sub-Continent. A continuing high level of investment by India in its armed forces, including a developing long-range intervention capability and a ballistic missile system, including perhaps as ICBM by 2015 as well as a small nuclear arsenal, suggests that she will become indisputably, the predominant regional military power in the future. This capability is unlikely to be used for deliberate aggression with the object of acquiring territory, but its nature and scale will make any resistance by its neighbours to Indian political hegemony increasingly irrational. Pakistan, however, will continue to develop its own military capability, including a nuclear weapon and a ballistic missile system, against the perceived threat. Among the small nations in the region which will be affected by India's growing influence is Nepal, and this may have implications for the UK's interests there. The main threat to peace in the area might arise from an Indian perception of a challenge to its regional power
status from China.
14. South East Asia and the Far East. Developments here are
likely to transform the global status of this region to a
anf.1s2
F-6
UK EYES A SECRET
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