SECRET
UK EYES A
state situation remained, we could expect minimum disruption to British interests.
b. If there was an agreement which did not work and inter-communal relations deteriorated, the instability
created could be expected to reflect on British
interests, but should not seriously affect out ability to
secure them.
C. If there were to be an agreement that was seen by
both communities to have worked for a reasonable period of time, we could expect the government of the Republic
to exert pressure on the UK government to give up the
SBAs and the Retained Sites.
But for as long as British forces remain in Cyprus, the threat of terrorist action against them will continue.
8. Arab World. There is a continuing danger of internal
unrest in the Arab world but in the main the ruling factions
have a strong grip on power. The armed forces of the region are generally large, are lavishly equipped with advanced conventional weapons and are increasingly acquiring an NBC capability and also medium range ballistic missiles to supplement the bombers already in service. The burgeoning drug problem in the Near East, especially in Lebanon, is likely to be accompanied by an increase in narcotics related terrorism and arms trafficking. The geographical proximity of Cyprus will mean that the island will also be affected.
9.
Deep-rooted hostility will continue to exist between many of the countries in the Arab World region and, in particular, the pretensions of Libya under Qaddaffi and his heirs, the
Israeli confrontation with its Arab neighbours and competition between Iraq and Iran for authority in the Gulf could lead to renewed conflict at any time. The broad equality of capability available to the various potential opponents
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UK EYES A SECRET
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