TNAG-1941-FCO40-2767-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 152

CONFIDENTIAL UK EYES A

constraints which may be imposed by CFE, the army will have been restructured in face of the demographic trough and will be heavily dependent on conscripts and reservists. This will have implications for its tactical flexibility, though airborne and mountain units (currently three brigades and one brigade respectively) are likely to be retained. The navy is likely to have DD and FF but its greatest expertise will probably remain in its Fast Attack Craft Flotillas, submarine service, mine warfare units and Fleet Air Arm. The latter should have both an MPA and considerable ASUW capability. Luftwaffe will probably remain a basically tactical force, with emphasis on capabilities for AD, interdiction, reconnaissance and transport support. In equipment terms, it will be built largely round Tornado and EFA.

4.

The

Italy. Italy's OOA capabilities are likely to reflect her keen interest in preserving stability in the Mediterranean

area. Thus, the present ad-hoc Rapid Intervention Force (FIR) based on a parachute brigade, a motorized brigade, a marine battalion with integrated sealift, with helicopter, air transport and logistic elements, will probably be retained and refined. There will probably also be a continuation of the Rapid Assistance Force (FOPI), which is a tri-service organization centred on a motorized brigade, and designed to facilitate a rapid response to civil emergencies. Both naval and army SF capabilities are likely to be retained. Italian navy will maintain a balanced sub-surface, surface and maritime air fleet, the latter probably including organic fixed-wing VSTOL elements. The Italian air force will remain largely a tactical force, with the appropriate AD, interdiction, air support, reconnaissance and transport elements. Its combat elements will comprise a force-mix of Tornado, AMX and EFA.

The

5. Spain. The Spanish army is being re-organised to develop a significant intervention capability. In OOA terms the most significant elements are likely to be provided by the

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UK EYES A CONFIDENTIAL