TNAG-1941-FCO40-2767-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 148

CONFIDENTIAL

APPENDIX 6 TO ANNEX B TO

D/ACDS (CONCEPTS)108/5 DATED OCT 89

DEFENCE_EXPORT MARKET 2000-2015

WORLD DEFENCE EXPORT MARKET SIZE

1.

The world total defence export market is not expected to have significantly expanded above $50 billion annually at 1989 prices by the year 2000, the small rise occurring as a result

of the time position in most nations re-equipment cycle,

offset by a reduced general threat perception and economic

constraints imposed on individual nations. Although there may

be a positive shift in resources allocated to defence by OOA

nations, this will be balanced out by a negative movement in

the developed world.

GEOGRAPHIC TRENDS

2.

In regional terms, the current level of funds will continue to be allocated by countries in Africa, and along

with Latin America the economic pressures of the eighties are

likely to become a permanent part of the economic landscape.

Overall these two areas are unlikely to account for more than

15% of the export market in the OOA region.

3. In the Middle East, the continuation of the relatively

static position is likely to continue, as the area reaches

saturation level with regard to its capacity to acquire and operate new items. In general, the increased industrial- isation will allow many countries to design and build many of their own products, but they will still rely upon the developed world for many of their more sophisticated items and perhaps more particularly for training. This region will

account for about 40% of 00A sales.

apb6.1s2

B6-1

CONFIDENTIAL

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