TNAG-1941-FCO40-2767-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 137

SECRET UK EYES A

Netherlands may well still have responsibilities in the Caribbean and Spain her North African enclaves. Belgium has links with Central Africa, while Greece and Italy have

security concerns in the Mediterranean area. The FRG will

probably remain both the EC's industrial centre of gravity and its most reticent member in terms of military activity 00A. However, this inhibition was originally imposed by circumstances rather than inspired by some higher national wisdom, and if the political mood changed a differing interpretation could be made of the Federal Basic Law to allow

OOA deployments by the Bundeswehr. Notes on relevant European

military capabilities are at Annex C.

21. NATO. The North Atlantic Treaty defines the area within which it is operative and NATO's structure and strategy have evolved to deter and defend specifically against the Warsaw Pact. A defensive military alliance is essentially reactive in nature, and when it is composed of a number of sovereign nations it is always liable to be out-manoeuvred politically by an adroit opponent. These factors combine to suggest that NATO will seek to keep change to a manageable minimum and will not extend formally its area of operation. However, the Alliance is increasingly aware of the potential impact on it of events 00A, and will develop the mechanisms designed to facilitate such deployments by member-nations when they are seen to be in the interests of all, while the interoperability and habit of cooperation developed within the Alliance offer potential benefits OOA.

22. The WEU. The WEU will provide an exclusively European mechanism whereby the members, who will possibly include Greece and Turkey, can confer on matters of security. The WEU rests on the modified Brussels Treaty and under its terms

constitutes a formal alliance. However, for the foreseeable

future full US participation will remain vital to any Western

defence organization designed to counter a Soviet threat, and

anb.1s2

B-12 UK EYES A SECRET