TNAG-1938-FCO40-2764-Future-of-Hong-Kong-defence-and-public-order-1989 — Page 16

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CDS 7/87 envisaged a reduction to an establishment of 6

of each type in 1989, as the HKGFSD's capability expanded. CDS 7/87 also envisaged a further reduction

to a minimum of 4 Wessex, to mount a simultaneous

platoon lift, and 4 (later 3) Scouts for LH duties, after about 1993, once the HKGFSD was able to support the RHKP in fulfilling transferred military tasks.

Four Wessex and 3 Scouts was seen as the minimum

helicopter force required by the garrison at the time of final withdrawal; the rationale is provided at Annex

B.

PART TWO

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THE THREAT AND PLANNING FACTORS

THE THREAT

12. Factors. CDS 7/87 was based on a threat assessment (5) which remains valid. This assessment indicated that a marked downturn in the domestic economy, particularly if it led to a substantial increase in unemployment and a fall in real incomes, could trigger unease and result in a loss of confidence in the future of Hong Kong. In the worst case, if confidence eroded dramatically, further investment fund withdrawals could follow, leading to spiralling unemployment, pressure on the HK dollar and accelerating inflation - a recipe for civil unrest. In the final years it is conceivable that there will be a flight of capital and talent, and there are already early indications of an increased level of emigration. The loyalty of public officials and police may be tested particularly the

Note:

5.

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D/DIS (CS) 21/75 dated 29 January 1987.

COS49.6-17

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