$
SECRET
FM FCO
TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG
TELNO 229
OF 24100OZ JANUARY 89
INFO PRIORITY MODUK
SECRET
MKC 062/
020250 MDHOAN 3376
(40
SIC
MODUK FOR POLLARD SEC(O) (C)
1987 WITHDRAWAL PLAN: FIRST REVIEW
1. AS YOU KNOW, THE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE'S WITHDRAWAL PLAN FOR THE GARRISON PROVIDES FOR A ROUTINE REVIEW AT TWO YEARLY INTERVALS (AS WELL AS THE MAJOR REVIEW IN 1992/93 INSTITUTED AT
EXCO'S REQUEST).
2. THE MOD ARE IN THE PROCESS OF CARRYING OUT THE FIRST BIENNIAL REVIEW, IN CONSULTATION WITH CBF HONG KONG AND HKD, FCO. BEFORE THE REVIEW IS FINALISED AND SUBMITTED TO MINISTERS, WE SHALL OF COURSE NEED TO CONSULT EXCO. MIFT CONTAINS THE TEXT OF A DRAFT PAPER WHICH, SUBJECT TO YOUR VIEWS, COULD FORM THE BASIS OF SUCH CONSULTATION.
3.
THE CURRENT REVIEW IS NOW AT A FAIRLY ADVANCED STAGE. THE MINISTRY OF DEFENCE, HAVING GONE OVER THE GROUND THOROUGHLY, HAVE CONCLUDED THAT THE MAIN ASSUMPTIONS AND FACTORS UNDERLYING THE 1987 PLAN REMAIN VALID: THAT THE TIMETABLE SET OUT IN THE 1987 PLAN AND ENDORSED BY EXCO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ADHERED TO: AND THAT THE PLAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IMPLEMENTED IN A FLEXIBLE MANNER WHICH WILL RESPOND TO ANY CHANGES IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES IN HONG
KONG
4.
THE REVIEW HAS ALSO CONCLUDED THAT THE TIMING OF THE MAJOR REVIEW. ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE IN 1992/93, SHOULD BE BROUGHT FORWARD TO 1991 AND COMPLETED BY THE END OF THAT YEAR. THIS WOULD BE IN LINE WITH THE BIENNIAL PATTERN OF REVIEWS PROVIDED FOR IN THE PLAN. IT WOULD ALSO ENABLE THE MAJOR REVIEW TO BE COMPLETED SOME SIX MONTHS BEFORE THE FIRST MAJOR EVENT OF THE WITHDRAWAL CIE THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE FIRST BATALLION).
IF THIS IS AGREED, WE WILL NEED TO INFORM THE CHINESE OF THE CHANGE.
5.
THE REVIEW HAS IDENTIFIED A REQUIREMENT FOR VARIOUS FURTHER STUDIES TO BE UNDERTAKEN IN THE LIGHT OF DEVELOPMENTS SINCE 1987, OF WHICH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IS A STUDY TO DETERMINE THE TYPE AND NUMBER OF RN VESSELS BE DEPLOYED IN THE PERIOD UP TO 1997.
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