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SECRET
486
105362
MDHIAN 8564
SECRET
FM HONG KONG
TO FLASH FCO
TELNO 4071
la
HKB 2+3 /a
OF 11120OZ DECEMBER 89
INFO FLASH HANOI
INFO IMMEDIATE WASHINGTON
1458
TOP CO Q DIST
YOUR TELNO 2443: VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE: REPATRIATION
THE 51 PEOPLE AT PHOENIX HOUSE ARE CALM AND SEEM TO BE RESIGNED TO THE FACT THAT THEY WILL BE RETURNED TO VIETNAM. MOST WILL, WE BELIEVE, ACCEPT REPATRIATION AND WILL NOT RESIST. TWO MEN, ONE A SINGLETON AND ONE THE HEAD OF A FAMILY OF SIX, ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RESIST. IF DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THE OPERATION BEFORE TAKE- OFF EITHER OF THESE PEOPLE BECOME SO TROUBLESOME THAT THEY SEEM LIKELY TO PUT THE OPERATION IN JEOPARDY THEY (INCLUDING THE FAMILY) COULD BE EXCLUDED FROM THE GROUP TO BE RETURNED.
2.
IF THERE IS TO BE RESISTANCE, WE JUDGE THAT IT IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT PHOENIX HOUSE. A FINAL JUDGEMENT ON THE NUMBER TO BE EMBARKED WILL BE MADE IMMEDIATELY BEFORE BOARDING THE AIRCRAFT. AT THIS STAGE WE HOPE THAT ALL 51 WILL LEAVE.
3. THE MOOD IN THE CAMPS IS GENERALLY QUIET AND WE HAVE RECEIVED NO FIRM INDICATIONS OF PLANNED DEMONSTRATIONS OR DISTURBANCES. NEVERTHELESS, WE ARE ON STANDBY TO RESPOND TO DISTURBANCES IN CAMPS SHOULD THEY MATERIALISE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN THE NEWS BREAKS OR INDEED LATER WHEN DEMONSTRATIONS MIGHT WELL BE ORGANISED.
4. A RELEVANT AND UNHELPFUL DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING IS THAT THE LOCAL PRESS AND TV STATIONS CLAIM THAT, IN RESPONSE TO ENQUIRIES, THE VIETNAMESE HAVE CONFIRMED THAT AN AGREEMENT WITH UK HAS BEEN CONCLUDED AND THAT REPATRIATION WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TVB SAY THAT HANOI RADIO ARE CARRYING THIS SAME NEWS. (NO DOUBT CAVERSHAM CAN CONFIRM WHETHER THIS IS SO.) WE MUST THEREFORE EXPECT THE NEWS OF THE START OF THE OPERATION AT PHOENIX HOUSE TO BREAK HERE VERY EARLY DURING THE EXERCISE.
WILSON
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