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ener rather
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negotiations on assistance to departure areas as a swee than as a bribe to accept back non-volunteers, in which circumstances they would have considerable leverage on us to
determine the level of such assistance. (I have not tackled the question of aid to Vietnam in this paper; but undoubtedly the improvement of conditions in Vietnam resulting from a measure of assistance would be important in persuading people that there might be a future in Vietnam to stay for).
8. This approach would make no sense if we had no candidates to
feed through such a channel. We do, in fact, have over 1200
candidates, some of whom volunteered to return a considerable time
ago. I recommend that in trying to achieve a realistic return flow, we should aim initially at 120 people, or one regular flight, a week, with the target 250 a week to be reached as soon as
practicable. with 1200 volunteers, we therefore have over two month's worth to be going on with.
9. There remain the problems of incentives to volunteer, deterrents to those in Vietnam contemplating leaving, and finally, and most important, the fact that the screened out are not yet volunteering
to return. I will deal with each in turn.
INCENTIVES
10. We have been arguing that to send back a group of non-volunteers will provide the strongest incentive to others to
volunteer. I am concerned that the first evidence of people's reactions to our intentions seems to point to an opposite effect. After the separation of the group from Chi Ma Wan and their removal
to Phoenix House, the number of volunteers dropped markedly. Of the most important group, the 40 screend-out volunteers, 13 withdrew
their applications. My own judgement, which though personal is based on a visit to the camp at Lowu, is that the volunteers there
would be deeply disconcerted at the measures being taken to send
back their compatriots, and would be very likely to reconsider their
decision.
11.
On the other hand, I believe the removal of the disincentive of
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