TNAG-1907-FCO40-2711-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-voluntary-and-mandatory-repat-1989 — Page 213

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELNO 3061

OF 14120OZ SEPTEMBER 89

CONFIDENTIAL

135513 MDHIAN 5611

266

HKB

243 19

TOP COPY

2014

DICT

INFO IMMEDIATE HANOI, WASHINGTON, UKMIS GENEVA

(256

HANOI TELNO 459: VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE: REPATRIATION

SEEN FROM HERE, THE BALANCE OF ADVANTAGE LIES WITH HANOI'S FIRST OPTION I.E. TO CONCLUDE THE AGREEMENT WITH THE VIETNAMESE QUICKLY

AND PROCEED WITH THE FIRST RETURN ON THE ASSUPTION THAT THEY WILL BE

ACCEPTED. ANY ATTEMPT TO REOPEN NEGIOTIATIONS WOULD, AS HANOI HAVE POINTED OUT, LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE DELAY AND WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY JEOPARDISE THE NASCENT AGREEMENT ALTOGETHER.

2. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE VIETNAMESE WOULD WELCOME OUR CONFRONTING THEM WITH THE EXPLANATION THAT IF THE REPATRIATION PROGRAMME IS TO BE SUCCESSFUL WE MAY NEED TO USE MINIMUM NECESSARY FORCE. THIS WOULD IMPLY REOPENING DISCUSSIONS AND FURTHER DELAY, I.E. HANOI'S SECOND OPTION. THEIR APPARENT SCHIZOPHRENIA ON THE MANDATORY REPATRIATION ISSUE SEEMS TO BE DESIGNED TO GIVE THEM AN ESCAPE CLAUSE SHOULD THINGS GO WRONG, OR THE INTERNATIONAL PRESSURE BECOMES TOO INTENSE.

3. THERE ARE OF COURSE RISKS WITH PROCEEDING ON THE BASIS OF THE

PRESENT AGREEMENT BUT THROUGH CAREFUL PLANNING WE BELIEVE THAT THESE CAN BE MINIMISED. OUR LINE WITH THE VIETNAMESE SHOULD BE THAT

PERSONS WOULD BE RETURNED IN ACCORDANCE WITH OUR NORMAL REPATRIATION PROCEDURES, AND THE ARRANGEMENTS AGREED IN HANOI ON 26 JUNE

4. AT THE OPERATIONAL LEVEL WE SHALL NEED TO SELECT THE FIRST

GROUP WITH GREAT CARE AND CONDUCT THE OPERATION WITH CAUTION AND SENSITIVITY. ON THE POLITICAL FRONT, WE SHALL NEED TO BRIEF WIDELY AND THOROUGHLY IF WE ARE TO RIDE OUT WHAT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE A CONSIDERABLE STORM.

5. WE UNDERSTAND HANOI'S CONCERNS BUT WE DOUBT THAT THE VIETNAMESE WOULD WISH TO KNOW, STILL LESS FORMALLY TO ACCEPT, THAT MINIMUM FORCE MIGHT HAVE TO BE AUTHORISED IF THE REPATRIATION EXERCISE IS TO

BE SUCCESSFUL. THEIR PRESENT APPROACH WHICH ALLOWS FOR NELSONIAN

BLINDNESS SEEMS TO BE AS FAR AS THEY WILL BE PREPARED TO GO. SEEN

FROM HERE THE BEST APPROACH IS TO PROCEED ON THE BASIS OF THE PRESENT

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CONFIDENTIAL